What should be expected given the very high debt ratios?

We demonstrate the following point: wh ich ever scenario one adopts, the current very high debt ratios in OECD countries should create expectations of a sharp deterioration in the economy in the future: If inflation and interest rates remain very low, the debt ratio will continue to rise, further exacerbating the current situation; If inflation does return, then: Either central banks do not react, real interest rates become highly negative and savers are hit with a large tax (a very large inflation tax), which, if it is expected, should cause demand to start fall ing today; Or central banks react to the inflation and real interest rates rise , leading to two further possibilities: Either governments are forced to switch to highly restrictive fiscal policies to restore fiscal solvency; Or there is a debt restructuring and a partial debt default. In both cases, the expectation of this economic situation should make economic agents pessimistic today. So wh ichever scenario one adopts, the current high debt ratio should lead to expectations of a deterioration in the economy in the future.