3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits

In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.

NSR Policy: Trump Designates Carr as FCC Chair

Last night, President-elect Trump designated Commissioner Brendan Carr to be the next Chairman of the FCC. Carr has long been seen as the favorite for the spot. In this note we review what we wrote a year ago what Carr intended to do if appointed Chair and what has changed in the last year, including the increased influence of Elon Musk and Robert Kennedy Jr. (RFK) on Trump Administration policies that might cause internal tensions within Trump circles as well as Trump’s desire to use the FCC to obtain more favorable news coverage.

NSR Policy: Summarizing Policy Implications of Trump/Republican Victory

In the previous two months, we published multiple notes on the implications of the election, projecting forward on what would likely happen to market impacting policies in the event of either a Trump or Harris Victory. Here, we link to those notes—you can quickly skip the Harris parts—as well as summarizing key points relating to the likely impact of a Trump victory. We note that the notes involving Musk were the ones we think most underrated (at least they were initially) and important. We also briefly summarize the key themes of the earlier notes related to a Trump and Republican Congress...

AMD post-3Q24 model update

Tele Columbus Model review post-earnings & management call

Earlier today, we published our review of TeleColumbus’ results. Following the earnings call and speaking with management, we now update our model and run through the changes to estimates in this note.

SCOTUS Takes Up Legal Challenge to USF but Bigger Existential Threat Looms

Late last week, the Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal of 5th Circuit decision holding that the current Universal Service Framework is unconstitutional. In this note, we review the 5th Circuit decision, provide guidance on the likely Supreme Court outcome (and data points to watch along the way that might cause us to change our views), but also analyze other events that could be more even more disruptive to the current USF Framework.