Novo Nordisk - Why Tirzepatide is Not a Threat (BUY, TP DKK550 [520], 20 pgs)
Instead of being a threat, tirzepatide could actually help Novo carve out a new market for 2.0mg Ozempic in patients who would have progressed to insulin. Our deep-dive into the opportunity for high efficacy GLP-1’s shows a $5bn market for the 2 drugs to share. Based on our high-efficacy GLP-1 market model we upgrade Ozempic franchise sales by $1.5bn and include $2.4bn for 2.0mg Ozempic. This drives a 5% 2025 EBIT upgrade & our PT up to DKK550. Consensus doesn’t model 2.0mg Ozempic. We are 18% above 2025 consensus EBIT. 2 big catalysts due in Q420 to shine spotlight on 2.0mg Ozempic.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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