New Street Research - Novo Nordisk (novob) Novo Nordisk - Icodec to Hit $2.5bn - PT Up to DKK 800 (BUY, TP DKK 800 [700])

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New Street Research

Dominic Rose ...

Naresh Chouhan

EUR 4387.50 For Business Accounts Only

Novo Nordisk - Icodec to Hit $2.5bn - PT Up to DKK 800 (BUY, TP DKK 800 [700])

Following our deep-dive on once-weekly insulin icodec, we increase our peak sales forecast to $2.5bn and increase our valuation to DKK800. The basal insulin market is a complicated arena with high levels of competition, differing views on how to treat patients, falling prices & adverse channel mix. Having spoken to US endocrinologists & community diabetes doctors, we have constructed a detailed bottom-up basal insulin model. We show that insulin icodec could achieve 25% market share & a daily net price of $5/day.
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21/02/2022 1 EN

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Novo Nordisk

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New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

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Analysts

Dominic Rose

Naresh Chouhan

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Novo Nordisk - Icodec to Hit $2.5bn - PT Up to DKK 800 (BUY, TP DKK 800 [700])

Novo - Negative Mix A Major Concern (SELL, TP DKK350, 15pgs)

MFN Drug Pricing - Impact and Implementation (Thematic, 5pgs)

Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)

Altice France (SFR) Q1 25: Positive new OpFCF guidance despite weak SR and EBITDA result

PDD: 1Q25 Flash - Meaningful Deceleration in Revs; Margins Below Expectations

Kuaishou: 1Q25 Flash - Results Largely in Line

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