Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - EBITDA Growth Could Improve To 3% yoy In 2025 From Flat yoy In 2024

We maintain BUY with a target price of Rp4,200 for TLKM due to several factors: a) 2024 mobile and fixed broadband accounted for 82% of Telkomsel’s revenue; b) digital touch points’ (MyTelkomsel super app) users reached 46m subscribers (29% of Telkomsel’s subscribers); c) EBITDA growth of 3% yoy in 2025, slightly better than flat yoy in 2024; and d) potential divided yield of 5-6%, assuming 70-80% dividend payout.

Indonesia Daily - Friday, August 30, 2024

Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp3,030/Target: Rp4,200): EBITDA growth could improve to 3% yoy in 2025 from flat yoy in 2024; maintain BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY PP Persero (PTPP IJ): Technical BUY

Telecommunications – 2Q24: 11% yoy Growth In Core Profit

The combined EBITDA of TLKM, ISAT and EXCL grew 5% yoy in 2Q24. ARPU of ISAT and EXCL rose 5% yoy and 6% yoy respectively, while the ARPU of TLKM’s subsidiary for the cellular business (Telkomsel) declined 10% yoy. During 2Q24, ISAT gained a little market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos, partly because it managed to expand its EBITDA margin slightly (2Q24: 49% vs 1Q24: 47%). Maintain OVERWEIGHT with EXCL as our top pick.

Intel 1Q25: Weakening outlook near term; hints on the road ahead.

CHTR 1Q25 Quick Take: Net adds a little soft; EBITDA beat

Net adds missed estimates, but the miss was less severe than some might have feared following Comcast’s results. Importantly, adds in existing markets improved year-over-year. EBITDA growth was 3.5% after adjusting for a one-time benefit. This was well ahead of expectations. Estimates for EBITDA and FCF will likely increase for the year. Repurchases are back, and the Company seemed to reaffirm a leverage target of 4.25x. Repurchase estimates should increase too with higher EBITDA and FCF.

NSR Policy Implications of Hegseth’s Woes on Key Spectrum Battle

Secretary of Defense Hegseth continues to struggle in controlling the narrative about his leadership, leading to reports that the White House is looking for a replacement (which the White House denies.) In this note we analyze the implications of those struggles for the key spectrum battle involving the Department of Defense (DoD) and the wireless industry.