AENA: FY2019 RESULTS (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
4Q'19 vs. 4Q'18 ResultsSales: € 1.055 Bn (-1.4% vs. +0.8% BS(e) and -1.9% consensus);
EBITDA: € 629.5 M (+0.8% vs. +2.2% BS(e) and +0.2% consensus);
Net Profit: € 327.8 M (+6.1% vs. +12.6% BS(e) and +1.5% consensus);
FY2019 vs. FY2018 Results
Sales: € 4.503 Bn (+4.2% vs. +4.8% BS(e) and +4.1% consensus);
EBITDA: € 2.766 Bn (+4.1% vs. +4.5% BS(e) and +4.0% consensus);
Net Profit: € 1.442 Bn (+8.6% vs. +10.1% BS(e) and +7.5% consensus);
The FY2019 results came in as expected in EBITDA (+4.1% vs. +4.5% BS(e) and +4.0% consensus), where margins were slightly harmed (61.4% vs. 61.5% in FY2018) given the increased operating and staff costs (effects that were already known). However, this is partially offset with a positive performance in commercial revenues (27% sales), which continue to grow by healthy rates (+8.1%) thanks to the increase in RMG.
Moreover, the company has raised its guidance’20 for traffic growth to +1.9% (vs. +1.1% previously and +2.8% BS(e)), although this figure would not price in the potential impact from the coronavirus on air traffic. With these numbers, AENA forecasts revenue growth of +4% in 2020 (vs. +2.3% consensus), with improvement of +1% in EBITDA (vs. +1.2% consensus), where the key will lie in the dilutive effect from the Northeast Brazil Airport Group (+4.9% of AENA’s traffic volume) on margins.
Lastly, as regards the other key element to the stock (shareholder remuneration), AENA maintains an 80% payout (as announced in its strategic plan), which results in a dividend of € 7.58/sh. (+9.4% vs. FY2018, in line with expectations), which means a 4.9% yield. In short, the results did not add much new, emphasising the high visibility into the company’s business, where the only doubt lies in the messages that the company may convey in the Conference Call (13:00 CET) as regards the possible impact from the coronavirus (which would not be included in their figures). SELL. Target Price: € 151.00/sh (upside -2.64%)
Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.
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