Report
Peter Thilo Hasler

EBITDA trotzt Start-up-Belastungen aus Streaming

Nach vorläufigen Zahlen erzielte Klassik Radio im Geschäftsjahr 2017 einen Konzernumsatz in Höhe von EUR 14,0 Mio. und ein EBITDA von über EUR 1,6 Mio. Die Marge erreichte damit das Niveau des Vorjahres von rund 11,5%, obwohl Klassik Radio Start-up-Aufwen­dungen für den Musik-Streaming-Dienst in nach u. E. mittlerer sechsstelliger Höhe zu verarbeiten hatte. Wir haben nach dem Start des Musik-Streaming-Dienstes und dem damit verbundenen Einstieg in ein werbeunabhängiges Geschäftsmodell unser dreistufiges DCF-Entity-Modell grundsätzlich überarbeitet. Während wir für das laufende Jahr noch mit operativen Verlusten rechnen, erwarten wir ab 2019e positive Ergebnisbeiträge aus dem Streaming-Dienst. Demzufolge erhöht sich unser aus einem dreistufigen DCF-Modell abgeleitetes Kursziel von EUR 6,50 auf EUR 12,30 je Aktie. In einer Monte Carlo-Simulation ergeben sich Bear-Case- und Bull-Case-Werte von EUR 10,10 bzw. EUR 14,00. Auch nach der deutlichen Outperformance der Aktie (+94,3% vs. DAX +10,5% LTM) bestätigen wir angesichts einer von uns auf Zwölf-Monats-Sicht erwarten Kursentwicklung von 38,2% unser Buy-Rating für die Aktien der Klassik Radio AG.

Underlying
Klassik Radio AG

Klassik Radio AG. Klassik Radio AG is a Germany-based company that is active in the radio industry. It focuses on the production, broadcasting and marketing of the radio station Klassik Radio. The Company operates through two business segments: Radio Stations and Merchandising. The Radio Stations segment operates radio stations that broadcast music and news. The Merchandising segment specializes selling advertising time. The Company also operates an online shop with music, books and audio books, among others, and provides online radio streaming services. The Company's direct and indirect subsidiaries include Euro Klassik GmbH, FM Radio Network GmbH, FIRST NEWS Nachrichten GmbH, Klassik Radio Direkt GmbH, Klassik Radio GmbH & Co KG, Klassik Radio Geschaeftsfuehrungs GmbH and Klassik Radio Austria GmbH.

Provider
Sphene Capital GmbH
Sphene Capital GmbH

Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.

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Analysts
Peter Thilo Hasler

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