Report
Peter Thilo Hasler

Trotz neuer Bestwerte leicht unter den Erwartungen

Dass die Halbjahreszahlen 2023 trotz neuer Bestwerte bei den Besucherzahlen leicht unter unseren Erwartungen lagen, ist insbesondere auf klimatische Widrigkeiten an einigen kontinentaleuropäischen Standorten, aber auch auf die flächendeckenden Waldbrände in der kanadischen Provinz Quebec zurückzuführen. Von letzteren war eak mit seinem Standort bei Montreal durch die allgemein rückläufigen Tourismuszahlen in Nordamerika zumindest mittelbar betroffen. Unter dem Strich wurde die Erholung der Besucherzahlen nach dem Ende der behördlich verfügten, insbesondere den Nahtourismus belastenden Corona-Einschränkungen dadurch teilweise konterkariert. Die Guidance wurde zwar bestätigt, für den Umsatz wurde nun allerdings eher das untere Ende der Bandbreite avisiert, für das operative Ergebnis der mittlere bis untere Bereich. Wir passen unser aus einem dreiphasigen DCF-Entity-Modell (Primärbewertungsmethode) ermitteltes Kursziel daher leicht auf EUR 21,40 von EUR 21,60 (Base Case-Szenario) an und bestätigen angesichts einer von uns auf Sicht von 24 Monaten erwarteten Kursentwicklung von 195,2% unser Buy-Rating für die Aktien der Erlebnis Akademie AG.

Underlying
Erlebnis Akademie AG

Erlebnis Akademie AG is a Germany-based company engaged in the leisure and recreation industry. The Company designs, constructs and operates barrier-free nature experience facilities. It operates three treetop paths in Germany in the Bavarian and Black Forests, and in the Czech Republic in Lipno. In addition, the Company provides seminar, event and team training. Its partners include Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt, Lesycr, Nationalpark Bayerischer Wald and Naturpark Schwarzwald Mitte/Nord. The Company operates Akademie Adrenalinovych Zazitku sro and DoNature GmbH as wholly owned subsidiaries, and Stezka Korunami Stromu Krkonose sro as a majority owned subsidiary.

Provider
Sphene Capital GmbH
Sphene Capital GmbH

Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.

As a general rule, analysts of Sphene Capital strive to understand companies better than any other analyst or investor before publishing their initiation reports. Therefore, the comprehensive initiation research reports comprise of 50-80 pages, including an extensive analysis of the value chain of the IPO candidate, its unique selling proposition, an elaborate analysis of suppliers and clients, a thorough SWOT analysis, a commercial due diligence (i. e. market and competitive analysis), an integrated financial forecast model and a profound company valuation (both DCF methodology and peer group multiples). Before publication, each of Sphene Capital’s research report will be double-checked by a fellow research colleague (“Four-eyes-principle”), ensuring highest quality and avoiding careless mistakes.

After initiation of research coverage, Sphene Capital publishes regular updates of 12-30 pages following relevant news flow from the issuer or major peers, f. ex. after acquisitions or after publication of quarterly results.

Due to Sphene Capital’s extensive experience in equity and bond research, the team has established longstanding contacts to all relevant market players, i. e. institutional investors, family offices and high net-worth individuals as well as journalists. To each of these groups, Sphene Capital’s research analysts have regular contacts during analyst and management roadshows or via daily phone calls. Finally, analysts publish articles in selected stock markets magazines and websites in which the analysts help issuers to improve their popularity on the German capital markets.

Analysts
Peter Thilo Hasler

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