Report
Peter Thilo Hasler
EUR 49.88 For Business Accounts Only

„Rethinking Entertainment“ oder Me-Too-Produkt?

Die Aktie von Pantaflix hat in den vergangenen 18 Monaten eine bemerkenswerte Kursentwicklung vollzogen und sich in der Spitze mehr als verdreifacht. Auslöser dieser Outperformance war die Ankündigung des Unternehmens, neben der traditionellen Filmproduktion ein zweites Standbein im Bereich Transactional Video on Demand (TVoD) aufzubauen. Aus unserer Sicht ist der Wertbeitrag dieses Geschäftsmodells jedoch überschaubar: Im Streaming von B- und C-Movies wird Pantaflix unseres Erachtens nicht die Größenordnungen erreichen, die eine Marktkapitalisierung von rund EUR 200 Mio. rechtfertigen, im Streaming von Blockbustern steht Pantaflix in einem intensiven Wettbewerb mit Medienunternehmen wie Netflix oder Amazon, die über eine wesentlich höhere Finanzkraft verfügen als Pantaflix. Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass der Einstieg in das Streaming von Blockbustern unter bestimmten Annahmen sogar wertmindernd ist. Daher ergibt unsere DCF-basierte Unternehmensbewertung ein Kursziel von EUR 46,00 je Aktie (Base-Case-Szenario). Gegenüber dem aktuellen Aktienkurs von EUR 154,00 entspricht dies einer von uns erwarteten Kursentwicklung von -75,7%. Wir nehmen die Aktien von Pantaflix mit einem Sell-Rating in die Research-Coverage auf.

Underlying
Pantaleon Entertainment Ord Shs

Pantaflix AG, formerly known as PANTALEON Entertainment AG, is a Germany-based company, which is primarily engaged in the entertinment industry. The Company operates as a provider of video-on-demand platform Pantaflix where filmmakers and rights holders can upload and manage their content directly, make it available in across the world.

Provider
Sphene Capital GmbH
Sphene Capital GmbH

Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.

As a general rule, analysts of Sphene Capital strive to understand companies better than any other analyst or investor before publishing their initiation reports. Therefore, the comprehensive initiation research reports comprise of 50-80 pages, including an extensive analysis of the value chain of the IPO candidate, its unique selling proposition, an elaborate analysis of suppliers and clients, a thorough SWOT analysis, a commercial due diligence (i. e. market and competitive analysis), an integrated financial forecast model and a profound company valuation (both DCF methodology and peer group multiples). Before publication, each of Sphene Capital’s research report will be double-checked by a fellow research colleague (“Four-eyes-principle”), ensuring highest quality and avoiding careless mistakes.

After initiation of research coverage, Sphene Capital publishes regular updates of 12-30 pages following relevant news flow from the issuer or major peers, f. ex. after acquisitions or after publication of quarterly results.

Due to Sphene Capital’s extensive experience in equity and bond research, the team has established longstanding contacts to all relevant market players, i. e. institutional investors, family offices and high net-worth individuals as well as journalists. To each of these groups, Sphene Capital’s research analysts have regular contacts during analyst and management roadshows or via daily phone calls. Finally, analysts publish articles in selected stock markets magazines and websites in which the analysts help issuers to improve their popularity on the German capital markets.

Analysts
Peter Thilo Hasler

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