Mit Konzernerlösen von EUR 699 Mio. konnte Surteco nach vorläufigen Eckdaten im Geschäftsjahr 2018e nicht nur den Vorjahreswert, sondern auch die eigene, im Oktober nach unten angepasste Guidance übertreffen. Der von Einmalaufwendungen belastete operative Gewinn lag mit EUR 32,2 Mio. im Rahmen der Erwartung. Wir gehen davon aus, dass die eingeleiteten Kostensenkungsmaßnahmen im Personalbereich greifen und sich die Ertragslage in diesem Jahr deutlich verbessern wird. Zusätzliches Upside zu unseren Schätzungen könnte sich aus besser als erwarteten Materialkosten ergeben, sollten sich die Zellstoff- und Titandioxidpreise von ihrem derzeitigen Niveau wieder verbilligen. Wir bestätigen dementsprechend unser aus einem dreiphasigen DCF-Entity-Modell ermitteltes Kursziel auf Sicht von zwölf Monaten von EUR 35,60 je Aktie (Base-Case-Szenario). Aus einem Dividend Discount-Modell errechnen wir ein Kursziel von EUR 32,60 je Aktie, was unsere Bewertungsergebnisse aus dem DCF-Ansatz bestätigt. Gegenüber dem gestrigen Schlusskurs von EUR 25,25 ergibt sich im Base-Case-Szenario ein von uns erwartetes Kurspotenzial von 41,0%. Wir bestätigen dementsprechend unser Buy-Rating für die Aktien der Surteco Group SE.
Surteco Group SE, formerly SURTECO SE, is a Germany-based developer, designer, producer and marketer of surface materials based on paper and plastics. The Company operates through two segments: Paper and Plastics. The Paper segment comprises the production and sale of paper-based edge bandings, finish foils, impregnates, release paper and decor papers, and the Plastics segment includes the production and sale of thermoplastic edgings, foils, roller shutter systems, technical extrusions (profiles), skirting, and extrusions for flooring wholesalers, home improvement and do-it-yourself stores. The Company markets products under the Surteco Decor, Canplast, Dakor and Praktikus brands, among others. It operates approximately 20 production and sales locations in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Australia.
Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.
As a general rule, analysts of Sphene Capital strive to understand companies better than any other analyst or investor before publishing their initiation reports. Therefore, the comprehensive initiation research reports comprise of 50-80 pages, including an extensive analysis of the value chain of the IPO candidate, its unique selling proposition, an elaborate analysis of suppliers and clients, a thorough SWOT analysis, a commercial due diligence (i. e. market and competitive analysis), an integrated financial forecast model and a profound company valuation (both DCF methodology and peer group multiples). Before publication, each of Sphene Capital’s research report will be double-checked by a fellow research colleague (“Four-eyes-principle”), ensuring highest quality and avoiding careless mistakes.
After initiation of research coverage, Sphene Capital publishes regular updates of 12-30 pages following relevant news flow from the issuer or major peers, f. ex. after acquisitions or after publication of quarterly results.
Due to Sphene Capital’s extensive experience in equity and bond research, the team has established longstanding contacts to all relevant market players, i. e. institutional investors, family offices and high net-worth individuals as well as journalists. To each of these groups, Sphene Capital’s research analysts have regular contacts during analyst and management roadshows or via daily phone calls. Finally, analysts publish articles in selected stock markets magazines and websites in which the analysts help issuers to improve their popularity on the German capital markets.
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