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Valens Research

ALSN - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 03 26

 Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 9.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about end market demand, their growth opportunities, and their ability to meet guidance

 Specifically, management may be concerned about the sustainability of Defense end market demand, declines in their gross margin, and their recently refinanced 2026 term loan. Moreover, they may be exaggerating their growth opportunities, their ability to execute their executive priorities, and the progress of their innovation center project. Finally, they may lack confidence in their ability to meet increased net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net cash from operating activities guidance
Underlying
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.

Allison Transmission Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company manufactures fully-automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles. The company's transmissions are in used various applications, including on-highway trucks (distribution, refuse, construction, fire and emergency), buses (mainly school, transit and electric hybrid-transit), motorhomes, off-highway vehicles and equipment (mainly energy, mining and construction) and defense vehicles (wheeled and tracked). The company also sells replacement parts, support equipment and other products to service the installed base of vehicles utilizing its transmissions.

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Valens Research
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