Report
Valens Research

AEE - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 04 29

Ameren Corporation (AEE) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 48.4x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to rise above cost-of-capital levels, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain stable at 3% levels through 2023, accompanied by 4% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $6, representing significant potential equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about energy efficiency, utility infrastructure, and renewable energy.
Underlying
Ameren Corporation

Ameren is a public utility holding company. Through its subsidiary, Union Electric Company, the company operates a rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution business and a rate-regulated natural gas distribution business in Missouri. Through its subsidiary, Ameren Illinois Company, the company operates rate-regulated electric transmission, electric distribution, and natural gas distribution businesses in Illinois. Through its Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois subsidiary, the company operates a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rate-regulated electric transmission business. The company also has other subsidiaries that conduct other activities, such as providing shared services.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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Valens Research

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