Report
Valens Research

ADI - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 03 21

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) currently trades near corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 23.4x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 31%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Similarly, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 29% by 2023, albeit with a stronger 18% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $260,
representing significant potential equity upside for the firm. That said, given the industry's high cyclicality, peak cycle performance is not likely sustainable.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about growth, costs, and technology.
Underlying
Analog Devices Inc.

Analog Devices is an analog technology company. The company designs, manufactures, and markets a portfolio of solutions, including integrated circuits, algorithms, software, and subsystems. The company's analog products include data converter that translate real-world analog signals into digital data and also translate digital data into analog signals, amplifiers that condition analog signals, and power management and reference products that include functions such as power conversion, driver monitoring, sequencing and energy management. The company's digital signal processing products are designed to execute software programs, or algorithms, associated with processing digitized real-time, real-world data.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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