COHR - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 11 14
Coherent, Inc. (COHR:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 22.7x Uniform P/E. However, even at these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about demand, market strength, and costs.Specifically, management may be concerned about the sustainability of demand for their fiber-based ARM lasers, and they may be exaggerating the opportunities they see in the target designation and countermeasures business. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to realize cost savings from consolidation, and they may be concerned about the volume of demand in the OLED market.
Coherent is a provider of lasers, laser-based technologies and laser-based system solutions in a range of commercial, industrial and scientific applications. The company reporting segments are: OEM Laser Sources (OLS) and Industrial Lasers and Systems (ILS). The company's OLS business segment is focused on laser sources and optical sub-systems primarily used in microelectronics manufacturing, medical diagnostics and therapeutic medical applications, as well as in scientific research. The company's ILS business segment delivers laser sources, sub-systems and tools used for industrial laser materials processing, serving end markets like automotive, machine tool, consumer goods and medical device manufacturing.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
- GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
- Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
- Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
- Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
- Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
- Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
- Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
- The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
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