Report
Valens Research

DISH - Valens Credit Report - 2020 07 22

Credit markets are grossly overstating credit risk, with a CDS of 450bps and a bond YTW of 5.674% relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 113bps and an Intrinsic YTW of 1.414%. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating DISH's fundamental credit risk, with its Ba3 rating three notches lower than Valens' XO (Baa3) rating

Incentives Dictate Behaviorâ„¢ analysis highlights DISH's compensation framework should drive management to improve all three value drivers, which should lead to Uniform ROA expansion, and greater cash flows available for servicing obligations. Furthermore, management members have no change-in-control compensation, indicating that they are not well-incentivized to accept a buyout or pursue a sale of the company, reducing event risk

Earnings Call Forensicsâ„¢ of the firm's Q1 2020 earnings call (5/7) highlights that management is confident their employees have been working a lot of extra hours to take care of their frontline customers and the DISH community. However, they may lack confidence in their ability to compete and build out a telecommunications network and finalize the Boost deal, and they may be concerned about prepaid business model limitations. Furthermore, they may be concerned about competition from streaming platforms and the sustainability of favorable broadcasting negotiation terms
Underlying
DISH Network Corporation Class A

DISH Network is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates two business segments: Pay-TV and Wireless. The company provides pay-TV services under: the DISH? brand, which consists of, among other things, Federal Communications Commission licenses authorizing the company to use direct broadcast satellite and Fixed Satellite Service spectrum, the company's owned and leased satellites, and certain other assets utilized in the company's operations; and the Sling? brand, which consists of, among other things, live-linear streaming over-the-top Internet-based domestic, international and Latino video programming services. In addition, the company invests to acquire certain wireless spectrum licenses and related assets.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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