Report
Valens Research

DOW - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 06 01

Dow Inc. (DOW:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to
UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 15.6x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about sales growth, carbon emission reductions, and US EBITDA margins

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain overall sales growth as well as Consumer Solutions business sales growth. In addition, they may have concerns about the sustainability of strong demand in China and the pace of recovery of industrial customer orders in their Performance Materials & Coatings segment. Furthermore, management may lack confidence in their ability to meet their US EBITDA margin target and reduce carbon emissions. Finally, they may be overstating the potential of their silicone investments and share buyback strategy
Underlying
Dow Inc.

Dow is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company delivers science-based products and solutions for its customers. The company's segments are: Packaging and Specialty Plastics, which focuses on polyolefin product portfolio to deliver plastics to customers; Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure, which produces and markets ethylene oxide and propylene oxide derivatives that are aligned to market segments as appliances, coatings, infrastructure and oil and gas; and Performance Materials and Coatings, which utilizes the company's acrylics-, cellulosics- and silicone-based technology platforms to serve the needs of the architectural and industrial coatings, home care and personal care end-markets.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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