Report
Valens Research

GPS - Valens Credit Report - 2021 08 19

Credit markets are overstating GPS' credit risk with a cash bond YTW of 2.542% and a CDS of 163bps, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 1.482% and an Intrinsic CDS of 67bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its Ba2 credit rating four notches lower than Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. Management's compensation framework should drive them to improve margins and grow the top-line, which should lead to Uniform ROA expansion. In addition, management members have low change-in-control compensation, indicating they are unlikely to seek or accept a buyout or takeover, limiting event risk for credit holders
Underlying
Gap Inc.

The Gap is an apparel retail company. The company provides apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, Athleta, Intermix, and Hill City brands. The company has stores in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, Ireland, Japan, Italy, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Mexico, and has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Old Navy, Gap, and Banana Republic stores throughout Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Under these agreements, third parties operate stores that sell apparel and related products under the company's brand names.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

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