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Valens Research

INCY - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 09 25

Incyte Corporation (INCY:USA) currently trades below recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 13.1x Uniform P/E, implying bearish expectations for the firm. However, management is confident about Jakafi, momentum, and their hematological products.

Specifically, management is confident about their momentum entering H2, and they are confident they have generated $20mn in revenue under their collaboration agreement with Innovent. Furthermore, they are confident hematological products will be a driver of both revenue and margin and that the size of the team required to independently operate their derm business in the U.S. is modest. Additionally, management is confident Jakafi achieved positive results in its trial and that the GRAVITAS-301 study will achieve its endpoints in six months.
Underlying
INCYTE CORP

Incyte is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics. JAKAFI (ruxolitinib) has been approved for the treatment of patients with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis, for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera, and for the treatment of steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in adult and pediatric patients 12 years and older. The company has also obtained a license to develop and commercialize ICLUSIG (ponatinib) in Europe and other select countries. In the European Union, ICLUSIG is approved for the treatment of adult patients with chronic phase, accelerated phase or blast phase chronic myeloid leukemia.

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