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INCY - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 03 23

 Incyte Corporation (INCY:USA) currently trades below recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 12.7x Uniform P/E, implying bearish expectations for the firm. However, management is confident about their revenue, their drug development pipeline, and their TRuE-AD studies

 Specifically, management is confident that they expect $65mn in Jakavi royalties from Novartis and $100mn-$105mn in full year ICLUSIG revenue. In addition, they are confident that they are looking to create a flatter Jakafi profile with the same strengths but with less anemia and that RUX plus PEM inhibition is an important development program for the firm. Finally, they are also confident that they expect the same vehicle response rate in their TRuE-AD1 and TRuE-AD2 studies as shown in their proof-of-concept work
Underlying
INCYTE CORP

Incyte is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics. JAKAFI (ruxolitinib) has been approved for the treatment of patients with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis, for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera, and for the treatment of steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in adult and pediatric patients 12 years and older. The company has also obtained a license to develop and commercialize ICLUSIG (ponatinib) in Europe and other select countries. In the European Union, ICLUSIG is approved for the treatment of adult patients with chronic phase, accelerated phase or blast phase chronic myeloid leukemia.

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