Report
Valens Research

MSFT - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 22

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) currently trades at a historical high relative to Uniform earnings, with a 32.1x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to reach record highs, accompanied by 7% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to slightly improve to 36% in 2023, accompanied by 16% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $340, representing marginal 2% equity upside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about Microsoft Cloud, revenue growth, and Azure.
Underlying
Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft is a technology company. The company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The company provides an array of services, including cloud-based solutions as well as solution support and consulting services. The company also delivers relevant online advertising. The company's products include operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; and video games. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells devices, including personal computers, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other devices, and related accessories.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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