NVAX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 07 01
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX:USA) currently trades well below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 3.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bearish expectations for the firm, and management may have concerns about vaccine production, global supply chain development, and vaccine efficacySpecifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain revenue growth, fulfill their advance purchase agreements (APAs) on schedule, and secure additional APAs. In addition, they may have concerns about delays in the licensure of their COVID-19 vaccine, their COVID-19 vaccine's efficacy against emerging variants, and the market potential of a combined COVID-19 and flu vaccine. Furthermore, management may be exaggerating the progress of their global supply chain and manufacturing developments, and they may be overstating added data robustness of their crossover and booster trials
Novavax is a late-stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. The company's vaccine candidates, including its primary candidates, ResVax? and NanoFlu?, are genetically engineered, three-dimensional nanostructures of recombinant proteins critical to disease pathogenesis. The company's product pipeline targets a variety of infectious diseases. The company is also developing immune stimulating saponin-based adjuvants through its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary, Novavax AB. The company's primary adjuvant, Matrix-M?, has been shown to improve immune responses and was well-tolerated in multiple clinical trials.
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