Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 42.90 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Speculative Areas Still Leading; Staying Bullish

We have discussed since late-July how the S&P 500 (SPX) had not closed below its 20-day MA for three months, but that even when it does, "all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form." That is precisely what has happened after the SPX finally lost its 20-day MA (for one whole day) on 8/1/25, only to get back to all-time highs last week. Therefore, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.

Speculative Areas Still Leading. In our 7/15/25 Compass we discussed how many prior laggard areas were bottoming, and that it was specifically time to buy homebuilders (ITB), biotechnology (XBI), solar (TAN), and hydrogen (HYDR). A week later (7/29/25 Compass) we also discussed how cannabis names (MSOS) appeared to be bottoming. Now, bitcoin mining names (WGMI) are breaking out again after 1.5-months of consolidation -- buy/stay long names such as HUT, IREN, WULF, APLD, and CIFR. All these areas remain current leadership, and they can lead for months or more at a time. If these areas are still leading, it suggests risk appetites remain strong and that the bull market is in full swing... see page 4.
Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On. Additional market dynamics which support our bullish outlook include: (1) High yield spreads are at narrows last seen in 2005-2007. (2) Defensive Sectors including Consumer Staples (XLP) and Health Care (XLV) are at 25+ year lows, while RS for Real Estate (XLRE) is at all-time lows. (3) Semiconductors (SMH) remain above crucial support at $280. (4) Semiconductors (SMH) and speculative growth areas (ARKX, TAN, IPO, FFTY, WGMI, etc.) remain leadership. (5) The 10-year Treasury yield has not been able to break above 4.50%, let alone the major 4.70%-4.80% resistance level. (6) Interest rate volatility (MOVE index) is at 3.5-year lows. (7) Breadth metrics remain healthy, with the S&P 500 advance/decline (A/D) line hitting new high just last week. (8) The U.S. dollar (DXY) remains below $100. (9) Non-U.S. equities (ACWX) remain bullish. (10) Ether is outperforming Bitcoin. (11) Bitcoin remains above $109,880-$112,000. (12) Silver is outperforming gold. This risk-on list is overpowering; stay bullish... see page 3.
Underlyings
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Acadia Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of medicines focusing on central nervous system disorders. The company has a portfolio of product including its drug, NUPLAZID (pimavanserin), which has been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis (PD Psychosis). NUPLAZID is a selective serotonin inverse agonist preferentially targeting 5-HT2A receptors with no appreciable affinity for dopaminergic, histaminergic, or muscarinic receptors.

APPLIED BLOCKCHAIN INC

ARCELLX INC

Avidity Biosciences

AXSOME THERAPEUTICS

Axsome Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing therapies for the management of central nervous system (CNS) disorders. The company's CNS product candidates includes: AXS-05, which is for the treatment resistant depression and in agitation associated with Alzheimer's disease; AXS-07, which is initially being developed for the acute treatment of migraine; AXS-09, which is being developed for CNS disorders; AXS-12, which is in development for the treatment of narcolepsy; AXS-02, which is being developed for the treatment of knee osteoarthritis and chronic low back pain; and AXS-06, which is being developed for the treatment of osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis.

BridgeBio Pharma

BridgeBio operates as a bio technology company. The company focuses on development of medicines for genetic diseases. The company serves patients worldwide.

CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF

Cytokinetics Incorporated

Cytokinetics is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and commercializing muscle activators and muscle inhibitors as treatments for debilitating diseases in which muscle performance is compromised and/or declining. The company's clinical-stage drug candidates are: omecamtiv mecarbil, a cardiac myosin activator for the treatment of heart failure, AMG 594, a cardiac troponin activator, reldesemtiv, a skeletal muscle troponin activator for the treatments of spinal muscular atrophy and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and CK-3773274, a cardiac myosin inhibitor which is designed to reduce the hypercontractility that is associated with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

Green Plains Inc.

Green Plains is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an ethanol producer. The company has four operating segments: ethanol production, which includes the production of ethanol, distillers grains and corn oil; agribusiness and energy services, which includes grain handling and storage, commodity marketing and merchant trading for company-produced and third-party ethanol, distillers grains, corn oil, natural gas and other commodities; food and ingredients, which includes cattle feeding and food-grade corn oil operations; and partnership, which includes fuel storage and transportation services.

HUT 8 CORP

Insmed Incorporated

Insmed is a biopharmaceutical company focused on improving the lives of patients with rare diseases. The company's proprietary Pulmovance? technology uses charge-neutral liposomes to deliver amikacin directly to the lungs where liposomal amikacin is taken up by the lung macrophages where the MAC infection resides. The company's product pipeline: INS1007, an oral, reversible inhibitor of dipeptidyl peptidase 1, an enzyme responsible for activating neutrophil serine proteases in neutrophils when they are formed in the bone marrow; INS1009, an investigational inhaled treprostinil prodrug formulation that has the potential to manage certain of the limitations of existing prostanoid therapies.

IRIS ENERGY LTD

KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS INTERNATIONAL PLC

MERUS B V

Novavax Inc.

Novavax is a late-stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. The company's vaccine candidates, including its primary candidates, ResVax? and NanoFlu?, are genetically engineered, three-dimensional nanostructures of recombinant proteins critical to disease pathogenesis. The company's product pipeline targets a variety of infectious diseases. The company is also developing immune stimulating saponin-based adjuvants through its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary, Novavax AB. The company's primary adjuvant, Matrix-M?, has been shown to improve immune responses and was well-tolerated in multiple clinical trials.

REX American Resources Corporation

REX American Resources is a holding company. Through a wholly owned subsidiary REX I.P., LLC, the company entered into a joint venture with Hytken HPGP LLC to file and defend patents for eSteam technology relating to heavy oil and oil sands production methods. The company has two reportable segments, ethanol and by-products, which is a renewable fuel source produced by processing corn and other biomass through a fermentation process that creates combustible alcohol that can be used as an additive or replacement to fossil fuel based gasoline; and refined coal, which applies separate chemicals to convert feedstock coal into refined coal.

Tesla Inc

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and provides services related to its products. The company operates as two reportable segments: automotive, which includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and leasing of electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits; and energy generation and storage, which includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, services related to such products, and sales of solar energy system incentives.

WAVE Life Sciences

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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