Report
Valens Research

ORCL - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 04 28

Oracle Corporation (ORCL:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 18.9x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about the Fusion ERP suite, cloud product capabilities, and client software transitions

Specifically, management may be overstating the potential of their Fusion Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) suite, the continued opportunities to transition existing SAP clients to Oracle software, and the capabilities of their cloud products, particularly cloud supply chain management
Underlying
Oracle Corporation

Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. The company's products and services include applications and infrastructure offerings. The company's cloud and license business engages in the sale, marketing and delivery of its applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings; and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. The company's hardware business provides Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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