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Valens Research

PYPL - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 12 23

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 39.4x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade to 27%, accompanied by 15% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to decline to 22% levels in 2022, accompanied by 53% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $500, representing significant potential equity upside for the firm.

That said, analyst growth projections consider recent M&A activity, suggesting these levels are not sustainable going forward.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about growth, margins, M&A, and eBay payments migration.
Underlying
PayPal Holdings Inc

PayPal Holdings is a technology platform and digital payments company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide. The company's combined payment solutions include its PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom and iZettle products and services. PayPal's payment solutions enable the company's customers to send and receive payments. PayPal helps merchants and consumers connect, transact, and complete payments, whether they are online, on a mobile device, in an app, or in person. The company provides proprietary payment solutions accepted by merchants that enable the completion of payments on the company's Payments Platform on behalf of its customers.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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