PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +25%) PayPal - Pillar Two tax / EPS risk for F...

We spoke to PayPal today for a broader Q3 wrap but specifically also to focus on Pillar Two, given this tax angle is the current topic du jour (and following Mastercard’s guide last week) and given market whispers that 10% of PayPal EPS could be at risk from FY 25. Such extreme estimates seem a stretch.

Money 20/20 USA - Key takeaways

While still recovering from the whirlwind of information we’re taking an initial crack at summarizing some of the key takeaways from attending the annual Money 20/20 USA jamboree in Las Vegas last week. While the subject of many discussions was quite predictable—did anybody mention AI?— insight came from conversations around ROI considerations for AI, Open banking/finance use cases and compliance, Real-time payments and the ever-present issue of Fraud.

PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +25%) Healthy Q3 beat; sneak preview for FY 25...

PayPal reported solid Q3s, coming in ahead of expectations: 4% at transaction margin $ and 11% at non-GAAP EPS. FY guidance for 2024 was lifted, and consensus will move up, although less so for Q4 once higher higher investment costs are factored in.

PYPL US (BUY, TP: $100, +28%) PayPal - Everywhere CAC/LTV modeling, A...

We are pushing up our mid-term TM$ estimates on PayPal. Whilst remaining very constructive on Fastlane as a key product driver (see Faster Lane, bigger destination, Aug 20th), we are incorporating stronger debit adoption into estimates, modelling in more detail the direct and flywheel effects of PayPal Everywhere (and indirectly Venmo) and looking in more detail at how CAC/LTV can make sense (push back has been on the 5% cash back incentive and the merit/effectiveness of reward schemes).

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +24%) ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700) SQ US (Neutral,...

We continue our series of Deep dives into Payments (see previous: Unified Commerce, and Rise of the Merchants) with a look at Real Time Payment (RTP) developments. Adoption has been rapid on a global basis, notably at the consumer level in markets like Brazil, though is a significant laggard in the US. Momentum here is, however, slowly building through FedNow (launched only in 2023) with banks/FIs stalling, but with consumer demand we think high and with a Visa/Mastercard interchange settlement ...

PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +25%) PayPal Everywhere? Well, almost there..

PayPal at the end of last week presented “PayPal Everywhere”, with “new rich rewards and in-store access” which, according to the release, will “...transform PayPal into a single solution for every type of customer everywhere they shop”. A quick read of the headline might suggest that PayPal is (finally) becoming available for in-store payments. Perhaps even somehow already taking advantage of Apple’s recently announced opening up of access to the NFC chip (and “Secure Element”) for 3rd parties,...

PYPL (BUY, TP: $85 ($80), +25%) PayPal - Faster lane, bigger destinat...

With Fastlane a key driver of our positive view on the stock we update our thinking for latest commentary and aspirations here following Q2s (see note here) noting that being processor agnostic changes the way we’re looking at things (not bad, potentially better). We also run through Apple’s key news regarding access to its NFC chip (and “Secure Element”) for 3rd parties in multiple geographies from August 14th – the start of a journey which should allow PayPal to plug the hole in-store/anywhere...

PYPL US (Buy, TP: $80, +25%) PayPal Q2 24 - Beat and raise; Fastlane ...

PayPal reported very strong Q2s, with Transaction margin $ 7% ahead of expectations, and growing 8% y/y, in turn driving a 21% non-GAAP EPS beat. All key guidance indicators for FY 24 are lifted. TM % growth is supported by a return to growth in Unbranded, a solid performance from Branded and from Venmo and ~3pp of growth from interest income.

PYPL US (Buy, TP: $80, +33%) ADYEN (Buy, TP: EUR1,800, +58%) Visa-Ma...

On June 25, a federal judge in Brooklyn, NY formally blocked the $30 Billion Swipe-Fee Deal involving Visa / MasterCard and retailers, with a written statement published a few days later (28 June). In this short follow-up to our previous note Rise of the Merchants (19 April), where we discussed interchange and this theme in detail, and with the market mainly focusing on implications for V/MA, we look also at how this relates to PSPs, PayPal and Adyen, and what’s next.

PYPL US (Buy, TP: $80, +33%) PayPal: Apple Pay on 3rd-party browser -...

Having spent the week discussing Apple Pay’s recent (WWDC) initiatives with investors on the road we draw some firmer conclusions. The short thesis on PYPL since the announcement has focused largely on the 3rd party browser (non-Safari)/non-MacOS launch (rather than the BNPL/rewards/incentives).

PYPL US (Buy, TP: $80, +23%) PayPal - Apple Pay features update: Impl...

Apple yesterday announced the launch of a number of additional features to Apple Pay, including BNPL/instalment plans, rewards/incentives and access to third party browsers. Apple Pay is something we addressed for PayPal in our initiation, PayPal - Life in the Fast Lane, and PayPal’s personalisation efforts on Branded – as highlighted again yesterday at an investor conference by CFO Jamie Miller – remain hard for Apple to match as a pass-through wallet.

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

PYPL US (Buy, TP: $80, +28%) PayPal Initiation - BUY: Life in the Fas...

Almost nine months in, new CEO Alex Chriss is looking to pivot PayPal to value (from price) and better leverage its unique two-sided (consumer/merchant) advantages it has over competitors such as Adyen, Stripe and even Apple Pay. The first evidence of this is Braintree’s more rational approach to pricing contract renewals – good for all in the market. Next we Deep dive into Fastlane, a new guest checkout; we look at how this can lift unbranded volume (first) and pricing (to follow). Other areas ...

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Invite: Advisor Call with Former Square/Block Executive - 2/16 @ 11am ...

Wedbush Morning Call - Feb 14 2024 7:01AM