Report
Valens Research

TTD - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 01 12

The Trade Desk (TTD) currently trades well above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 119.80x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to reach a new peak of 73%, accompanied by 25% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to only improve to 23% in 2022, accompanied by 37% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $36, representing significant potential equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about Unified ID, growth, and advertising efficiency.
Underlying
Trade Desk Inc. Class A

The Trade Desk is a technology company for buyers of advertising. Through the company's self-service, cloud-based platform, ad buyers can create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, including display, video, audio, native and social, on a multitude of devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. The company's platform's integrations with data, inventory, and publisher partners provides ad buyers reach and decisioning capabilities, and its enterprise application programming interfaces enable its customers to develop on top of the platform.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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