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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 02 28

CRUS currently trade below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 10.4x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 28% in 2017 to 6% in 2021, accompanied by 10% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Moreover, analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to decline to 15% by 2018, accompanied by 13% Uniform Asset growth. At current levels, markets are pricing in a near-worst-case scenario for CRUS, and despite management concerns about their fundamental outlook, any positive development could lead to material equity upside.


CNX Q4 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a rebound in Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about capital efficiencies and their initiatives

GILD Q4 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Management's optimism regarding market share, financial strength, and Yescarta, coupled with overly bearish market expectations, imply longer-term upside is likely

MCD Q4 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, and management is confident about their mobile app, demand, and cost savings

BA, BABA, CAT, GE, ICHR, MO, NOV, NOVN:CHE, SUM, THC, TMO, TWTR, UNH, V, ZG
Underlyings
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Sponsored ADR

Altria Group Inc

Altria Group is a holding company. The company's subsidiaries include: Philip Morris USA Inc., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes; John Middleton Co., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine-made cigars and pipe tobacco; Sherman Group Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries, which are engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and the sale of cigars; and UST LLC, which through its subsidiaries, including U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC and Ste. Michelle Wine Estates Ltd., is engaged in the manufacture and sale of smokeless tobacco products and wine. The products of the company's tobacco subsidiaries include smokeable tobacco products and machine-made cigars.

BOEING COMPANY (THE)

The Boeing is an aerospace firm. The company's segments include: Commercial Airplanes, which develops, produces and markets commercial jet aircraft and provides fleet support services, mainly to the commercial airline industry; Defense, Space and Security, which engages in the research, development, production and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems for strike, surveillance and mobility, vertical lift, and commercial derivative aircraft; Global Services, which provides supply chain and logistics management, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, and data analytics and digital services; and Boeing Capital, which manages overall financing exposure.

Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar is a manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The company segments include: Construction Industries, which supports customers using machinery in infrastructure, forestry and building construction; Resource Industries, which supports customers using machinery in mining, heavy construction, quarry and aggregates, waste and material handling applications; Energy and Transportation, which supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail and industrial applications, including Cat? machines; and Financial Products, which provides financing and related services.

Cirrus Logic Inc.

Cirrus Logic focuses on low-power integrated circuits (ICs) for audio, voice and other signal-processing applications. The company's product lines include: Portable Products, including codecs, which are chips that integrate analog-to-digital converters (ADCs) and digital-to-analog converters (DACs) into a single IC, smart codecs, which are codecs with digital signal processing integrated, amplifiers, micro-electromechanical systems microphones, haptic drivers, standalone digital signal processors, and its SoundClear? technology, which includes a portfolio of tools, software and algorithms; and Non-Portable and Other Products, which include ICs, codecs, ADCs, DACs, digital interfaces and amplifiers.

CNX Resources Corporation

CNX Resources is an independent oil and gas company focused on the exploration, development, production, gathering, processing and acquisition of natural gas properties primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The company's operations are centered on unconventional shale formations, primarily the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale. The company operates, develops and explores for natural gas in Appalachia (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, and Virginia).

General Electric Company

General Electric is a technology industrial company. The company's segments include: Power, which serves power generation, industrial, government and other customers with products and services related to energy production; Renewable Energy, which engineers and manufactures energy equipment and projects, grid solutions and digital services; Aviation, which designs and produces commercial and military aircraft engines, digital components, electric power and mechanical aircraft systems; Healthcare, which provides healthcare technologies; and Capital, which provides financial products and services that build on the company's industry capabilities in aviation, power, renewables, healthcare and other activities.

Gilead Sciences Inc.

Gilead Sciences is a research-based biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes medicines. The company's primary areas of focus include viral diseases, inflammatory and fibrotic diseases and oncology. The company's products include: Biktarvy for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in certain patients; Vosevi?, a single tablet regimen of sofosbuvir, velpatasvir and voxilaprevir for the re-treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection in adults; Vemlidy? for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus infection in adults with compensated liver disease; and Yescarta (axicabtagene ciloleucel) for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma.

Ichor Holdings Ltd.

McDonald's Corporation

McDonald's franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants. The company's menu includes hamburgers and cheeseburgers, Big Mac, Quarter Pounder with Cheese, Filet-O-Fish, several chicken sandwiches, Chicken McNuggets, wraps, fries, shakes, McFlurry desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, pies, soft drinks, coffee, McCafe beverages and other beverages. The company's restaurants in the United States and various international markets provide a full or limited breakfast menu. Breakfast offerings may include Egg McMuffin, Sausage McMuffin with Egg, McGriddles, biscuit and bagel sandwiches and hotcakes. The restaurants also sells a variety of other products during limited-time promotions

NOV Inc.

National Oilwell Varco is an independent provider of equipment and technology to the upstream oil and gas industry. The company's segments include: Wellbore Technologies, which designs, manufactures, rents, and sells a variety of equipment and technologies used to perform drilling operations; Completion and Production Solutions, which designs, manufactures, and sells equipment and technologies for hydraulic fracture stimulation, well intervention, onshore production, and offshore production; and Rig Technologies, which designs, manufactures and sells land rigs, offshore drilling equipment packages, and drilling rig components that mechanize and automate the drilling process and rig functionality.

Novartis AG

Novartis is a multinational healthcare group based in Switzerland. Co. provides healthcare solutions that address the evolving needs of patients and societies worldwide. Co.'s broad portfolio includes innovative medicines, eye care products and cost-saving generic pharmaceuticals. Co.'s operations are organized along three operating divisions: Innovative Medicines Division; Sandoz Division; and Alcon Division. Co.'s operations are supported by the Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research and Novartis Business Services.

Summit Materials Inc. Class A

Summit Materials is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a construction materials company. The company produces and sells aggregates, cement, ready-mix concrete, asphalt paving mix and concrete products and owns and operates quarries, sand and gravel pits, cement plants, cement distribution terminals, ready-mix concrete plants, asphalt plants and landfill sites. The company is engaged in paving and related services. The company has operations in various states across the United States and in British Columbia, Canada. The company operates a municipal waste landfill in its East segment, and has construction and demolition debris landfills and liquid asphalt terminal operations in its West and East segments.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Tenet Healthcare is a healthcare services company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, including USPI Holding Company, Inc., the company operates hospitals, surgical hospitals and outpatient centers. In addition, the company's Conifer Holdings, Inc. (Conifer) subsidiary provides healthcare business process services in the areas of hospital and physician revenue cycle management and care solutions to healthcare systems, as well as individual hospitals, physician practices, self-insured organizations, health plans and other entities. The company has three reportable segments: Hospital Operations and other; Ambulatory Care; and Conifer.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Thermo Fisher Scientific is engaged in serving science. The company's segments include: Life Sciences Solutions, which provides reagents, instruments and consumables used in biological and medical research, discovery and production of new drugs and vaccines as well as diagnosis of disease; Analytical Instruments, which provides instruments, consumables, software and services that are used for a range of applications in the laboratory, on the production line and in the field; and Specialty Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic test kits, reagents, culture media, instruments and associated products for customers in healthcare, clinical, pharmaceutical, industrial, and food safety laboratories.

Twitter Inc.

Twitter provides products and services for people, organizations, advertisers, developers and platform and data partners. The company's product, Twitter, is a global platform for public self-expression and conversation in real time. The company's mobile application, Periscope, lets anyone broadcast and watch video live with others. The company's products and services for advertisers include Promoted Products such as Promoted Tweets, Promoted Accounts, and Promoted Trends. The company's products for developers and data partners provide tools and public application programming interfaces to build applications and other products that utilize Twitter data and syndicate and distribute Twitter content across their properties.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group is a health care company. The company has four reportable segments across its two business platforms, UnitedHealthcare and Optum: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health care benefits to an array of customers and markets through its UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement, UnitedHealthcare Community & State and UnitedHealthcare Global; OptumHealth, which serves the physical, emotional and health-related financial needs of individuals; OptumInsight, which provides services, technology and health care knowledge to main participants in the health care industry; and OptumRx, which provides pharmacy care services and programs.

Visa Inc. Class A

Visa is engaged in digital payments. The company facilitates payments between consumers and businesses. The company is focused on its proprietary network, VisaNet, to provide products and services. The company provides a portfolio of business payment solutions, including small business, corporate (travel) cards, purchasing cards, virtual cards/digital credentials, non-card cross-border business-to-business payment options and disbursement accounts, covering various main industry segments around the world. The company also provides several capabilities and services, including fraud prevention and security, processing, loyalty, merchant and digital solutions, consulting and data solutions.

Zillow Group Inc. Class A

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