Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 233.43 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Growth Surging Relative to Value

Note: This report is presented in an abbreviated format, as we are in production of our January US Macro Vision book.

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted below:

• Price Trends Remain Bullish. Price trends for major indexes in the US (large-, mid-, and small-caps) and abroad (MSCI EM and EAFE) remain on bullish trajectories.

• Internals are Healthy. Advance/decline lines for large-, mid-, and small-caps (S&P 500, 400, and 600, respectively) remain in uptrends, signaling healthy breadth.

• Defensives Show Deteriorating RS. RS is at multi-month lows and is trending lower for Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP, RHS), and Real Estate (VNQ).

• Growth vs. Value. Led by Technology (XLK, SOXX, IGV) and FAANG, growth vs. value ratios have surged since mid-December. Despite growth's leadership position, cyclical value segments such as Financials/banks (XLF, KBE, KRE), Transportation (XTN), Materials (XLB, XME), Energy (RYE, IEO), and retail (XRT) are not breaking down in terms of price. While we would like to see performance distributed more evenly, this absence of breakdowns within cyclical value provides us with bullish takeaways overall.

• US and Global Economy Troughing. Several forward-looking economic growth indicators are improving, signaling recession concerns continue to diminish. Copper, copper vs. gold, the 10-year Treasury yield, and the 10Y/2Y Treasury yield spread all show signs of bottoming. Additionally, high yield spreads remain near 8-month lows.

• US Dollar. The US dollar (DXY) continues to exhibit toppy price action. Continued gradual weakening should help support foreign equities (especially EM) and commodities, which in turn would provide a boost to global risk sentiment.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: CD-23 Casinos & Gaming, Large-Cap, TE-02 Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, TE-03 Semiconductors, Small-Cap, and TE-46 Software, Design Solutions... see pages 10-29.
Underlyings
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company. The company primarily provides x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated into an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and personnel GPUs, and development services; server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company also licenses portions of its intellectual property portfolio. The company's segments are: Computing and Graphics, which consists of desktop, notebooks, commercial, and chipsets products; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom, which includes server processors, and embedded P\processors products.

Ambarella Inc.

ANSYS Inc.

ANSYS develops and markets engineering simulation software and services used by engineers, designers, researchers and students across a spectrum of industries and academia, including aerospace and defense, automotive, electronics, semiconductors, energy, materials and chemical processing, turbomachinery, consumer products, healthcare, and sports. The company focuses on the development of solutions that enable users to analyze designs directly on the desktop, providing a platform for product development, from design concept to final-stage testing and validation. The company's product portfolio include ANSYS Workbench?, a framework upon which the company's suite of engineering simulation technologies is built.

ASE Technology Holding

Autodesk Inc.

Autodesk is a design software and services company. The company is engaged in 3D design, engineering and entertainment software and services. The company's product offerings include: AutoCAD, which is a customizable and extensible CAD application for design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD Civil 3D, which provides surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering; CAM Solutions, which is a computer-aided manufacturing software that provides solutions for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modeling for manufacturing; and Inventor, which provides tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation.

Cadence Design Systems Inc.

Cadence Design Systems provides solutions that enable its customers to design electronic products. The company's products offerings include software, hardware, services and reusable integrated circuit (IC) design blocks, which are referred to as intellectual property (IP). The company provides maintenance for its software, hardware, and IP product offerings. The company combines its products and technologies into categories related to design activities: Functional Verification (including hardware for emulation and prototyping); Digital IC Design and Signoff; Custom IC Design and Simulation; System Interconnect and Analysis (printed circuit boards and IC package); and IP (includes design IP and verification IP).

Cirrus Logic Inc.

Cirrus Logic focuses on low-power integrated circuits (ICs) for audio, voice and other signal-processing applications. The company's product lines include: Portable Products, including codecs, which are chips that integrate analog-to-digital converters (ADCs) and digital-to-analog converters (DACs) into a single IC, smart codecs, which are codecs with digital signal processing integrated, amplifiers, micro-electromechanical systems microphones, haptic drivers, standalone digital signal processors, and its SoundClear? technology, which includes a portfolio of tools, software and algorithms; and Non-Portable and Other Products, which include ICs, codecs, ADCs, DACs, digital interfaces and amplifiers.

Cree Inc.

Cree is a provider of bandgap semiconductor products for power and radio-frequency (RF) applications and lighting-class light emitting diode (LED) products. The company's products are used for applications such as transportation, power supplies, inverters, wireless systems, indoor and outdoor lighting, electronic signs and signals and video displays. The company operates in two segments: Wolfspeed, which consists of silicon carbide and gallium nitride (GaN) materials, power devices and RF devices based on silicon and bandgap semiconductor materials; and LED Products, which consists of LED chips and LED components. The company's LED chip products include blue and green LED chips based on GaN and related materials.

Dassault Systemes SA

Diodes Incorporated

Diodes is a manufacturer and supplier of application-specific standard products. The company's product line includes: discrete semiconductor products, which include performance Schottky rectifiers, performance Schottky diodes, Zener diodes and performance Zener diodes; analog products, which include power management devices; standard logic products including complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor devices and analog switches; multichip products and co-packaged discrete, analog and mixed-signal silicon in miniature packages; silicon and silicon epitaxial wafers used in manufacturing these products; and Frequency Control Products, which are electronic components that provide frequency references.

Himax Technologies Inc. Sponsored ADR

Inphi Corporation

Inphi is a provider of analog and mixed signal semiconductor solutions for the communications and datacenter markets. The company's analog and mixed signal semiconductor solutions provide an interface between analog and mixed signals and digital information in systems such as telecommunications transport systems, enterprise networking equipment and datacenters. The company has a range of products in its portfolio, including products that have commercially shipped, products for which the company has shipped engineering samples and products under development, that perform a range of functions such as amplifying, encoding, multiplexing, demultiplexing, and retiming signals at speeds up to 400 Gbps.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Las Vegas Sands is a developer of destination properties (Integrated Resorts) that feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, restaurants and other amenities. The company owns and operates Integrated Resorts in Asia and the United States. Through its ownership of Sands China Ltd., the company owns and operates properties including The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao. In Singapore, the company owns and operates the Marina Bay Sands. The company's Las Vegas Operating Properties includes The Venetian Resort Las Vegas and the Sands Expo Center.

Lattice Semiconductor Corporation

Lattice Semiconductor develops semiconductor technologies. The company delivers two types of semiconductor devices to its customers: Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), and Video Connectivity Application Specific Standard Products (ASSPs). The company's FPGAs offerings consist of five product family lines: the ECP families, the MachXO families, iCE40 families, CrossLink, and Programmable Mixed Signal devices. The company's Video Connectivity ASSPs perform various functions, including ensuring interoperability, improving picture quality, converting between resolutions, and transmitting / receiving content without the need for additional components.

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc.

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of analog semiconductor solutions that enable internet applications, the cloud connected apps economy and the networked battlefield across the radio frequency (RF), microwave, millimeterwave and lightwave spectrum. The company's primary markets are: Telecom, which includes carrier infrastructure like long-haul/metro, 5G and fiber-to-the-X/passive optical network; Data Centers, enabled by a portfolio of analog ICs and photonic components for high speed optical module consumers; and Industrial and Defense, which includes military and commercial radar, RF jammers, electronic and countermeasures.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd.

Marvell Technology Group is a semiconductor provider of application-specific products. The company is focused on the development of System-on-a-Chip devices, utilizing its technology portfolio of intellectual property in the areas of analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing, and embedded and standalone integrated circuits. The company develops integrated hardware platforms along with software that incorporates digital computing technologies. In storage, the company is engaged in fibre channel products and data storage controller solutions spanning cloud, enterprise, edge and personal computing markets. The company's networking products include ethernet solutions, embedded processors and WiFi connectivity solutions.

Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited Sponsored ADR

MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts across the United States and in Macau. The company's segments include: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, which consists of casino resorts such as Bellagio, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, The Mirage, Luxor, New York-New York, Excalibur, and Park MGM; Regional Operations, which consists of casino resorts such as MGM Grand Detroit, Beau Rivage, Gold Strike Tunica, Borgata, MGM National Harbor, MGM Springfield, Empire City, and MGM Northfield Park; and MGM China, which owns and operates casino resorts and the related gaming subconcession and land concessions.

Microchip Technology Incorporated

Microchip Technology develops, manufactures and sells semiconductor products. The company's product portfolio comprises general purpose and other eight-bit, 16-bit, 32-bit microcontrollers, 32-bit microprocessors, field-programmable gate array products, a range of linear, mixed-signal, power management, thermal management, discrete diodes, Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistors, radio frequency, timing, timing systems, safety, security, wired connectivity and wireless connectivity devices, serial Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory, Serial Flash memories, Parallel Flash memories, Serial Electrically Erasable Random Access Memory and serial Static Random Access Memory.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless semiconductor company. The company designs, develops and markets power solutions for systems found in consumer, computing and storage, automotive, industrial, communications and consumer applications. The company's primary product families include the following: Direct Current (DC) to DC products, which are used to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems such as portable electronic devices, wireless Local Area Network access points, computers, and monitors, automobiles and medical equipment; and Lighting Control Products, which include lighting control integrated circuits that are used in backlighting and general illumination products.

ON Semiconductor Corporation

ON Semiconductor is engaged in energy efficient electronics. The company is organized into three segments: Power Solutions Group, which provides a range of discrete, module and integrated semiconductor products; Analog Solutions Group, which designs and develops analog, mixed-signal, and advanced logic application specific integrated circuits and Application Specific Standard Product, and power solutions; and Image Sensor Group, which designs and develops complementary metal oxide semiconductor and charge-coupled device image sensors, as well as proximity sensors, image signal processors and actuator drivers for autofocus and image stabilization for automotive and industrial markets, among others.

Power Integrations Inc.

Power Integrations designs, develops and markets analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits and other electronic components and circuitry used in high-voltage power conversion. The company's products are used in power converters that convert electricity from a high-voltage source to the type of power required for a specified downstream use. In most cases, this conversion entails, among other functions, converting alternating current (AC) to direct current (DC) or vice versa, reducing or increasing the voltage, and regulating the output voltage and/or current according to the customer's specifications. The company's products are AC-DC power conversion, High-voltage gate drivers, and Motor-driver products.

Qorvo Inc.

Qorvo is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, develops, manufactures and markets its products to U.S. and international original equipment manufacturers and original design manufacturers in two operating segments: Mobile Products, which is a supplier of cellular radio frequency (RF) and Wi-Fi solutions for mobile devices, including smartphones, wearables, laptops, tablets and cellular-based applications for the Internet of Things (IoT); and Infrastructure and Defense Products, which is a supplier of RF and system-on-a-chip solutions for cellular base stations and other wireless communications infrastructure, defense, smart home, automotive and other IoT applications.

Rambus Inc.

Rambus is a semiconducor company that creates hardware, software and services. The company has three operational units: Memory and Interfaces, which focuses the design, development, manufacturing through partnerships and licensing of technology and solutions that is related to memory and interfaces; Rambus Security, which focuses on the design, development, deployment and licensing of technologies for chip, system and in-field application security, anti-counterfeiting, smart ticketing and mobile payments; and Emerging Solutions, which includes the Rambus Labs team and the development efforts in the area of emerging technologies.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. ADS (Rep 50 Ord Shs)

Silicon Laboratories Inc.

Silicon Laboratories is a provider of silicon, software and solutions for the Internet of Things (IoT), Internet infrastructure, industrial automation, consumer and automotive markets. The company provides analog-intensive, mixed-signal solutions for use in a variety of electronic products in a range of applications for the IoT including connected home and security, industrial automation and control, smart metering, smart lighting, commercial building automation, consumer electronics, asset tracking and medical instrumentation. The company provides a range of timing and isolation products for infrastructure applications including clocks and oscillators for networking equipment, and data centers.

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation Sponsored ADR

Skyworks Solutions Inc.

Skyworks Solutions is a provider of analog semiconductors that connect people, places, and things, spanning a number of applications within the aerospace, automotive, broadband, cellular infrastructure, connected home, industrial, medical, military, smartphone, tablet and wearable markets. The company's product portfolio consists of various solutions, including: amplifiers, antenna tuners, attenuators, circulators/isolators, wireless analog system on chip, direct current (DC)/DC converters, demodulators, detectors, diodes, directional couplers, diversity receive modules, filters, front-end modules, hybrid, light emitting diode drivers, low noise amplifiers, mixers, and modulators.

SMART Global Holdings Inc.

SMART Global Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in application product development and support for customers in enterprise, government and original equipment manufacturer markets. In its specialty memory products business, the company designs and manufactures products, technical support and testing services. The company also designs and manufactures embedded and removable Flash memory products in various form factors and capacities incorporated into storage and hybrid memory solutions. Through Penguin Computing Inc., the company provides compute and storage system solutions to customers in financial services, energy, government, social media and education end markets.

STMicroelectronics N.V. ADS

Synopsys Inc.

Synopsys is a supplier of electronic design automation (EDA) software that engineers use to design and test integrated circuits. The company also provides semiconductor intellectual property products, which are pre-designed circuits that engineers use as components of larger chip designs rather than designing those circuits themselves. The company provides software and hardware used to validate the electronic systems that incorporate chips and the software that runs on them. The company is also a provider of software tools and services that improve the security and quality of software code in a variety of industries, including electronics, financial services, media, automotive, medicine, energy and industrials.

Tower Semiconductor Ltd

Tower Semiconductor is a pure-play independent specialty foundry dedicated to the manufacturing of semiconductors. Typically, pure-play foundries do not offer products of their own, but focus on producing integrated circuits based on the design specifications of their customers. Co. manufactures semiconductors using advanced production processes for Co.'s customers primarily based on third party designs and Co.'s own proprietary designs. Co. offers the manufacture of integrated circuits with geometries ranging from 1.0 to 45-nanometers. Co. also provides design support and complementary technical services.

United Microelectronics Corp (ADR)

Wynn Resorts Limited

Wynn Resorts is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, developer, and operator of resorts featuring hotel rooms, retail space, an array of dining and entertainment options, meeting and convention facilities, and gaming. Through its subsidiary, Wynn Macau, Limited, the company operates two integrated resorts in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau. In Las Vegas, NV, the company also operates and, with the exception of certain retail space, own Wynn Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor, an integrated resort in Everett, MA, adjacent to Boston.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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