Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 48.03 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Communications To Overweight; Financials Breaking Above 2007 Highs

Ongoing market dynamics continue to support our overall bullish outlook. Recent developments include Financials (XLF) breaking above the 2007 highs, new 11+ month highs in the 10-year Treasury yield, new RS lows for defensive Sectors (Staples & Utilities), new multi-year narrows for high yield spreads, and new 2+ year highs in broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index). Of course, this all comes alongside an absence of breakdowns for the broad indexes and all Sectors. These are the types of developments we would expect to see in a healthy bull market, which is exactly what this is. Continue to buy dips.

· S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish. Key support levels we are watching include short-term support at 3925, with the next important support levels coming in at 3870, 3840, 3750, 3694, 3635, 3588, and 3550. A break below the 3870 level would signal a loss of short-term upside momentum as it would indicate a false breakout. If this were to happen, we would expect further downside and would use the aforementioned support levels as our guide for potential turnaround spots.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are upgrading the Communications Sector to overweight; RS is breaking above major resistance on the cap-weighted Sector (XLC), while RS for the equal-weighted Sector (EWCO) remains in an uptrend -- add exposure... see charts below and page 2.

· Market Dynamics Support Our Bullish Outlook. Cap-weighted Financials (XLF) are breaking above 14-year resistance from 2007. Let that sink in. As we like to say, new highs are bullish. The XLF is breaking above the key $31 resistance level -- and it is hard for us to be bearish on the broad market if the XLF is above $31. Not unrelated, the 10-year Treasury yield is hitting 11-month highs. Commodities are hitting multi-year highs. As for new lows, that list includes high yield spreads and RS for defensive Sectors..
Underlyings
AMC Networks Inc. Class A

AMC Networks is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in owning and operating entertainment businesses and assets. The company's operating segments are: National Networks, which includes activities of the company's programming businesses, which include programming networks such as AMC, WE tv, BBC AMERICA, IFC, and SundanceTV in the U.S., and AMC and IFC in Canada; and International and Other, which includes AMC Networks International, the company's international programming businesses consisting of a portfolio of channels; IFC Films, the company's independent film distribution business, and its subscription streaming services Acorn TV and UMC, Shudder and Sundance Now.

Chegg Inc.

Chegg provides products and services that help students improve their outcomes throughout their educational journey. The company's offerings fall into two categories: Chegg Services, which encompasses all of its digital products and services such as Chegg Study, Chegg Writing, Chegg Tutors, Chegg Math Solver, and Other Services; and Required Materials, which primarily includes its print textbook and eTextbook offering. To deliver services to students, the company partners with a variety of third parties. The company sources print textbooks, eTextbooks, and supplemental materials directly or indirectly from publishers including Cengage Learning, Pearson, McGraw Hill, Sage Publications, and MacMillan.

Discovery Inc. Class A

Discovery, through its subsidiaries, is a media company that provides content across distribution platforms, including pay-television, free-to-air and broadcast television, and direct-to-consumer subscription products. The company's portfolio of networks includes nonfiction television brands such as Discovery Channel, HGTV, Food Network, TLC, Animal Planet, Science Channel, and MotorTrend . The company's portfolio includes Eurosport, a sports entertainment provider. The company classifies its operations in two segments: U.S. Networks, consisting of domestic television networks and digital content services, and International Networks, consisting of international television networks and digital content services.

Discovery Inc. Class C

E. W. Scripps Company Class A

Scripps (E.W.) is a media enterprise with interests in local and national media brands. The company's media businesses are organized into the following reportable business segments: Local Media and National Media. The company's Local Media segment is comprised of its local broadcast television stations and their related digital operations. The company produces news, information and entertainment content that informs and engages its local communities. In addition, the company's television stations run network programming, syndicated programming and original programming. The company's National Media segment represents its collection of national media brands including Katz, Stitcher, Triton and Newsy.

Entercom Communications Corp. Class A

Entercom Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co, is a media and entertainment company primarily engaged in the sale of advertising time to local, regional and national advertisers and national network advertisers who purchase commercials in varying lengths. The company focuses on station-related digital product suites, which allow for audience interaction and participation, and integrated digital advertising solutions. The company's stations are classified by their format, such as news, sports, talk, classic rock, urban, adult contemporary, alternative and country, among others.

Entravision Communications Corp.

Entravision Communications is a media company that, through its television and radio segments, reaches and engages U.S. Hispanics across acculturation levels and media channels. The company has three segments: television broadcasting, which owns and/or operates television stations in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Kansas, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas and Washington, D.C.; radio broadcasting, which owns and operates radio stations in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas, as well as sells advertisements and syndicates radio programming; and Digital Media, which provides users with news information and other content.

Gannett Co. Inc.

Gannett owns, operates and invests in local media assets focused in small to mid-size markets. The company's main products include: daily newspapers; weekly newspapers, which publishe up to three times per week; shoppers, which are generally advertising-only publications; locally-focused websites, which extend the company's businesses onto the internet and mobile devices; business publications; UpCurve Cloud and ThriveHive digital marketing; and GateHouse Live. In addition to its main products, the company also produces publications that address specific local market interests such as recreation, sports, healthcare and real estate.

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Company

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt is a learning company focused on delivering integrated solutions that engage learners, educators and improve student outcomes. The company has two reporting segments: Education, which provides educational products, technology platforms and services that include print and digital content in the form of textbooks, digital courseware, instructional aids, educational assessment and intervention solutions; and Trade Publishing, which primarily develops, markets and sells consumer books in print and digital formats and licenses book rights to other publishers and electronic businesses in the U.S. and abroad.

iMedia Brands Inc

iMedia Brands is a video and digital commerce company. The company provides a range of proprietary, exclusive and name-brand merchandise in the categories of jewelry and watches, home and consumer electronics, beauty and wellness, and fashion and accessories directly to consumers via television, online and mobile devices. The company's programming is also streamed live online at evine.com, a digital commerce platform that sells products which appear on the company's television shopping network as well as an extended assortment of online-only merchandise, and is available on mobile channels and platforms.

John Wiley & Sons Inc. Class A

John Wiley & Sons is a global research and learning company. Co. has three segments: Research segment, which provides scientific, technical, medical, and scholarly journals, as well as related content and services to libraries and individual researchers, among others; Publishing, which provides scientific, professional, and education books and related content in print and digital formats, test preparation services and course workflow tools, to libraries, corporations, students, professionals, and researchers; and Solutions, which provides online program management services for higher education institutions and learning, development, and assessment services for businesses and professionals.

Lee Enterprises Incorporated

Lee Enterprises is a provider of local news and information, and a platform for advertising, in the markets it serves. The company's products provide print and digital editions, and its content and advertising is available through its websites and mobile apps. The company provides marketing services, mainly through its digital marketing agency, Amplified Agency, and through one of its subsidiaries, TownNews, the company provides web hosting and content management services for its media operations and other content producers. The company's also provides commercial printing, distribution of third party publications and management services to other local media operations.

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp Class A

Lions Gate Entertainment has three segments, Motion Pictures, Television Production and Media Networks. Motion Pictures consists of the development and production of feature films, acquisition of North American and worldwide distribution rights, North American theatrical, home entertainment and television distribution of feature films produced and acquired, and worldwide licensing of distribution rights to feature films produced and acquired. Television Production consists of the development, production and worldwide distribution of television productions. Media Networks consists of the licensing of premium subscription video programming to U.S. multichannel video programming distributors.

Med Paper S.A.

News Corporation Cl B

Nexstar Media Group Inc. Class A

Nexstar Media Group is a television broadcasting and digital media company focused on the acquisition, development and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services. The stations provide over-the-air programming. This programming includes programs produced by networks with which the stations are affiliated; programs that the stations produce; and first-run and rerun syndicated programs that the stations acquire. The company's digital media businesses provide digital publishing and content management platform, digital video advertising platform, social media advertising platform and other digital media solutions to media publishers and advertisers.

Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc. Class A

Sinclair Broadcast Group is a television broadcasting company with using the company's spectrum to bring together content providers, advertisers, and consumers on various platforms. The content, distributed through the company's broadcast platform, consists of programming provided by third-party networks and syndicators, local news, the company's own networks, and other original programming produced by the company The company also distributes its original programming, and owned and operated network, on other third-party platforms. The company operates technical services companies focused on supply and maintenance of broadcast transmission systems as well as research and development for the development of broadcast technology.

TEGNA Inc.

TEGNA is a media company. The company's business provides television programming and digital content. Each television station also has a digital presence across online, mobile and social platforms. The company provides advertising and marketing services, which include local and national non-political television advertising, digital marketing services, and advertising on stations' websites and tablet and mobile products; subscription by satellite, cable, Over the Top and telecommunications providers; political advertising; and other services, such as production of programming and advertising material. The company's portfolio of Big 4 NBC, CBS, ABC and FOX stations operate under long-term affiliation agreements.

Tesoro Resources

Plukka is engaged in the investment in securities listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and cash.

ViacomCBS Inc. Class B

ViacomCBS is a media and entertainment company. The company's TV Entertainment segment creates and acquires programming for distribution and viewing on several media platforms. The company's Cable Networks segment creates and acquires programming for distribution and viewing on several media platforms. The company's Filmed Entertainment segment develops, produces, finances, acquires and distributes films, television programming and other entertainment content in various markets and media worldwide. The company's Publishing segment publishes and distributes Simon & Schuster consumer books domestically and internationally and includes imprints such as Simon & Schuster?, Scribner?, Atria Books? and Gallery Books?.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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