Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
• Financials, especially the large-cap brokers have suffered severe pullbacks recently. If these stocks cannot sustain a reversal in the next few days, we believe the markets could suffer a more severe pullback. Many of these names are suffering uptrend violations in price and RS, as well as bearish descending triangle patterns. The Sector is showing signs deteriorating breadth as well. see pages 6-14• We believe the U.S. equity market is following a pattern reminiscent of that experienced during 1994, in which the market suffered from a growth recession, trade wars, and an increase in bi-partisanship. During that period, navigating the market exclusively by relative strength was extremely difficult. Breakouts among sectors and groups was narrow and short-lived (see chart below). Buying oversold, and selling overbought, sectors and groups, as defined by RSI's and MACD's helped in achieving outperformance. We believe the market is really stuck within the confines of a trading range. Sector overweights and underweights will ultimately win out in the end but, in the meantime, we expect a continuation of rapid sector rotations.
• Internals remain healthy but we expect continued rapid rotations within Sectors. Advance-decline lines, which remain near all-time highs, continue to confirm the market's advance, but as indicated above we expect a continuation of volatility and rapid and short-lived rotations reflecting sector strength.... see page 4
• In today's report we highlight concerning charts within Financial Sector... see pages 6-12.
Affiliated Managers Group is a global asset management company with equity investments in boutique investment management firms (Affiliates). The company provides centralized capabilities to its Affiliates, including strategy, marketing and distribution, and product development. Through its Affiliates, the company provides strategies designed to assist institutional, retail and clients worldwide in achieving their investment objectives. The company provides boutique investment management services to retail investors through advisory and sub-advisory services to return-oriented mutual funds, Undertakings for the Collective Investment of Transferable Securities, collective investment trusts and other retail products.
Bank of America is a bank and a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. The company's segments include: Consumer Banking, which provides credit, banking and investment products and services; Global Wealth & Investment Management, which provides investment management, brokerage, banking and retirement products; Global Banking, which provides lending-related products and services, integrated working capital management and treasury solutions, and underwriting and advisory services; and Global Markets, which provides sales and trading services and research services.
Berkshire Hathaway is a holding company. Co.'s subsidiaries are engaged in several business activities which include: underwriting private passenger automobile insurance; operation of a railroad system in North America; regulated electric and gas utility; manufacturing of products including industrial, consumer and building products; wholesale distribution of groceries and non-food items; provider of services including aviation pilot training, electronic components distribution and retailing businesses, including automotive dealerships; and manufactured housing and related consumer financing, transportation equipment, manufacturing and leasing, and furniture leasing.
Citigroup is a financial services holding company whose businesses provide consumers, corporations, governments and institutions with a range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, trade and securities services and wealth management. The company operates via two primary business segments: Global Consumer Banking, which provides banking services to retail customers through retail banking, Citi-branded cards and Citi retail services; and Institutional Clients Group, which includes banking and markets and securities services.
JPMorgan Chase is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company's segments include: Consumer and Community Banking, which provides services through bank branches, ATMs, digital (including mobile and online) and telephone banking; Corporate and Investment Bank, which consists of Banking and Markets and Securities Services, provides a suite of investment banking, market-making, prime brokerage, and treasury and securities products and services; Commercial Banking, which provides financial solutions, including lending, treasury services, investment banking and asset management products; and Asset and Wealth Management, which is engaged in investment and wealth management.
Legg Mason is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an asset management company that provides investment management and related products and services. The company's investment advisory services include discretionary and non-discretionary management of separate investment accounts for institutional and individual investors. The company's investment products include proprietary mutual funds ranging from money market and other liquidity products to fixed income, equity and alternative funds managed in various investment styles. The company also provides other domestic and offshore funds to both retail and institutional investors, privately placed real estate funds, hedge funds, and funds-of-hedge funds.
Morgan Stanley is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the company advises, and originates, trades, manages and distributes capital for, governments, institutions and individuals. The company's segments are: Institutional Securities, which provides investment banking, sales and trading, lending and other services; Wealth Management, which provides brokerage and investment advisory services, financial and wealth planning services, stock plan administration services, annuity and insurance products, residential real estate loans and other lending products, banking, and retirement plan services; and Investment Management, which provides investment strategies and products.
State Street is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial products and services to institutional investors. The company's clients include mutual funds, collective investment funds and other investment pools, corporate and public retirement plans, insurance companies, foundations, endowments and investment managers. The company's Investment Servicing line of business performs custody and related functions, such as providing institutional investors with clearing, settlement and payment services. The company's Investment Management line of business, through State Street Global Advisors, provides a range of investment management strategies and products for its clients.
U.S. Bancorp is a multi-state financial services holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services. The company also engages in credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing. The company's subsidiary, U.S. Bank National Association, is engaged in the general banking business, principally in domestic markets. The company's bank and trust subsidiaries provide a range of asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations and charitable organizations.
Wall Financial is engaged in the business of hotel operations, real estate development and real estate investment, mainly in Metro Vancouver and the Lower Mainland of Canada. Co. is focused on the development, acquisition and management of residential income producing properties, the development and sale of single and multi-family housing and the development and management of hotel properties. As of Jan 31 2011, Co. had 1,057 residential and commercial rental units and 1,050 hotel rooms.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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