Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading DefensivesThe current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect†for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance.
• Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (XLI, RGI) to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections, and we are downgrading Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Real Estate (XLRE) to underweight due to RS deterioration... see chart below and Sector comments on pages 4 and 8-9.
• Big Picture Trends. The 10-year Treasury yield continues to bottom. Banks (KBE, KRE) and Transports (XTN) exhibit signs of price and RS bottoms. Small-caps (IWM) are still grappling with resistance. The small- vs. large-cap ratio (IWM/SPY) has yet to bullishly inflect. The US dollar (UUP) remains in an uptrend channel. Gold (GLD) continues to back-and-fill.... see pages 2-3.
• Actionable Industry ETFs: IHI, XTN, COPX, and IGV... see page 10.
• EM and Int'l: Developed international equities (EFA) remain on a bullish trajectory, while EM equities (EEM) have recently suffered a mild setback... see page 11.
• Actionable Int'l ETFs: EUSC, EWJ, EWL, EWN, PGAL, EWC, EWY, and EWT... see pages 12-13.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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