Vermilion Research - Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) ... Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research Ideas

Report

Vermilion Research

Dave Nicoski ...

Ross LaDuke

EUR 47.39 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight

Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. Current price action on the S&P 500 is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns that occurred in April 2000 and August 2007, with 2007 being the best comparison. Note that the Fed was getting ready to cut rates and recession indicators that have already triggered such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator were also triggered in early-2001 and early-2008. This comparison and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors remain our top concerns. We view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives with the S&P 500 back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range.

Upgrading Utilities. We are upgrading Utilities (XLU) to overweight; price remains bullish with the uptrend intact on the XLU, and RS has formed a gradual uptrend -- buy pullbacks. Bottoming RS for Utilities and other defensive Sectors (Health Care, Staples, and Real Estate) is a clear risk-off signal..

03/09/2024 1 EN

Underlyings

Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund

See profile

United States

REAL ESTATE SPDR

See profile

US81369Y8600 NYSE Arca United States

Select Sector SPDR-Energy

See profile

US81369Y5069 NYSE Arca United States

Select Sector SPDR-Industrial

See profile

US81369Y7040 NYSE Arca United States

Select Sector SPDR-Utilities

See profile

US81369Y8865 NYSE Arca United States

Provider

Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

See profile

Analysts

Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

Other Reports on these Companies

Vermilion Research

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Three Sector Upgrades and One Downgrade Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have only improved since our last ETF Pathfinder (11/4/24). In that report we discussed how we were finally getting an opportunity to add exposure on a pre-election pullback that we had been looking for. We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025. We expect to see support at the 20-day MAs (where we would buy) on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Ultimately, we ...

EUR 47.39

November 18, 2024 November 18, 2024 1 EN

Vermilion Research

Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass. This is the point where it became clear that the 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that we called for in late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) was over, and that a new uptrend was underway. We have also been discussing since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and that we see a high probability of significant upside going into year end and the early part of 2025. A...

EUR 94.77

November 12, 2024 November 12, 2024 1 EN

Vermilion Research

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we are upgrading our outlook to bullish. Since late-July, our outlook has been neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX), preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction. The market is breaking to new highs, hence our upgrade. We would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, as long as the SPX holds above 5670. Downgrading Real Estate, Staples, and Health Care to Market Weight. We are downgrading R...

EUR 47.39

October 21, 2024 October 21, 2024 1 EN

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

EUR 47.39

8h / 56m 8h / 56m 1 EN

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)

Dave Nicoski
Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670. We have discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and that we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025. This remains our expectation as long as the aforementioned supports hold on MSCI ACWI and the S&P 500. In terms...

EUR 47.39

8h / 59m 8h / 59m 1 EN

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)

Dave Nicoski
Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Booster Shots: Attractive bottom-fishing stocks

For investors looking for bottom-fishing candidates; stocks that are breaking downtrends, exhibiting ascending reaction lows, and showing stabilizing relative strength.

EUR 47.39

November 20, 2024 November 20, 2024 1 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Vermilion Booster Shots: Attractive bottom-fishing stocks

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe