ACV – Q4-2023 Results Preview: The international aviation market continues to underpin the robust earnings growth
- In Q4-2023, the total number of air passengers decreased by 17% QoQ, reaching 25.5 million passengers. Of these, international passenger volume increased by 5% QoQ to 9.2 million, while the domestic market declined by 26% QoQ, down to 16.3 million passengers. The divergent trends in the international and domestic markets were partly influenced by seasonal factors and reflect the still weak domestic demand for travel spending.
- For Q4-2023, we estimate revenue and net income (excluding profits from the Landing/Take-off activities) to reach VND 4.6 trillion (+13% YoY) and VND 2.0 trillion (+88% YoY), respectively. Consequently, the forecast for the full year of 2023F for revenue and core net income are VND 19.6 trillion (+41% YoY) and VND 8.0 trillion (+29% YoY), respectively.
- The forecast for flat net income growth in 2024F compared to 2023 is primarily due to (1) a decrease in financial income (reduced deposit interest as disbursements begin for the Long Thanh airport project, while a further steep depreciation of the JPY is unlikely); (2) gradual normalization of international market growth.
- The projected EPS for 2023F/24F is VND3,700 / VND3,670, corresponding to the current 2023F/24F P/E of 17.8x/17.9x.
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