ANV – High growth opportunities from Chinese market
- According to Argomonitor, although 2023 is a challenging year for the Pangasius industry with export turnover reach nearly USD 1.9bn (-24% YoY), ANV's export value only decreased by 9% YoY as Chinese market grew (+74% YoY). We estimate that ANV's revenue and NPAT-MI will reach VND 4,577bn (USD 188mn, -6.5% YoY) and VND 103bn (USD 4.2mn, -85% YoY), respectively. EPS 2023 is equivalent of VND 773 (-85% YoY).
- In 2024, we estimate that NPAT-MI will reach VND 4,902bn (USD 201.7mn, +7.1% YoY) and VND 261bn (USD 10.7mn, +154% YoY), This is based on the expectation that volume and average price (ASP) will increase by 6% YoY and a 2% YoY, respectively, as (1) a reduction in Pangasius supply and (2) recovery in demand in the second half of 2024 in the US and China as the holdiday season comes. The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.3% to 13.8% as the decrease in feed cost. This supports NPAT-MI to reach VND 261 bn (USD 10.7 mn, +154% YoY). EPS 2024 is equivalent of VND 1,961 (+154% YoY).
- We are reviewing carefully the valuation for ANV as we need to observe additional factors affecting the export prospects of the industry and the company. ANV’s current price is trading at a P/E ratio of 25x, higher than the 5-year average P/E ratio of 11x.
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