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FMC - Expecting double-digit growth compared to the same period

• Net revenue in Q4-2023 reached VND 1,253 bn (or USD 51.5 mn) (+3% YoY; -30% QoQ) as a shrimp export volume increase 22% and shrimp selling price in VND decrease 14% YoY. Net profit after majority interests (NPAT-MI) in Q4-2023 reached VND 82 bn (or USD 3.3 mn), increase 5% YoY due to higher financial profit and lower G&A expenses. For the year 2023, revenue reached VND 5,087 bn (or USD 209.3 mn) (-11% YoY) and NPAT-MI reached VND 276 bn (USD 11.3 mn) (-10% YoY), equivalent to 101%/100% of our forecast. EPS for 2023 is VND 4,221 (-10% YoY).
• Revenue for Q1-2024 is estimated to reach VND 1,008 bn (or USD 41.4 mn), equivalent to the same period last year, as shrimp export volume is expected to increase by 10% YoY while selling price decreases by 10% YoY. NPAT-MI in Q1-2024 is estimated to reach VND 56 bn (or USD 2.3 mn) (+10% YoY) as gross profit margin is 10% (+200bps YoY) due to the harvest of in-house shrimp in January 2024.
• For the year 2024, we increase the forecasted revenue and NPAT-MI are VND 5,598 bn (USD 230.3 mn) (+10% YoY) and VND 346 bn (USD 14.2 mn) (+25% YoY), respectively, with assumptions of a 9.8% YoY increase in shrimp production and a 0.6% YoY increase in selling price. The gross profit margin is expected to reach 11% due to a 29% YoY increase in in-house shrimp production. EPS for 2024 is expected to be VND 5,244 (+24% YoY).
• The target price is adjusted to VND 52,600/share, up 1,3% from the previous valuation on December 4, 2023. Combined with an cash dividend of 2,000 VND, the expected profit in the next 12 months is 5% compared to the closing price of VND 48,500/share on February 26, 2024. We recommend ACCUMULATE this stock for the long term.