NT2 – Q2/2023: Lower-than-expected earnings due to a gas supply insufficiency
- In Q2/2023, NT2 reported lower-than-expected results, with a power output of 1,054 mn kWh (-2.0% QoQ, -10.8% YoY), while the average gas input price is 8.9 USD/mn BTU (+0.8% QoQ, -12.2% YoY). NT2's revenue and NPAT respectively recorded VND2,183 bn (flat QoQ, -19% YoY) and VND 144 bn (-38.3% QoQ, -60.5% YoY). The substantial decline in NPAT was primarily due to a gas supply insufficiency.
- For FY2023, we lower NT2's net revenue forecast to VND 7,538 bn (-14.2% YoY), assuming (1) lower power output forecast to 3.7 bn kWh (-9.9% YoY), (2) an average gas price of around 8.9 USD/mn BTU (-6% YoY), and (3) a reimbursement for realized FX loss of VND 155 bn expected to receive in Q4. NT2's overhaul funding is expected to start being recorded in 2H23. Accordingly, we forecast NT2's NPAT in 2023 to VND 505 bn (-19.4% YoY), equivalent to an EPS of 1,729 VND per share.
- We have a NEUTRAL rating with a one-year target price of VND 29,300/share. With an expected cash dividend of VND 2,500/share in the next 12 months, total return is determined at 9% based on the closing price on Aug 2nd , 2023.
PetroVietnam Power NhonTrach 2 JSC. PetroVietnam Power Nhon Trach 2 Joint Stock Company (PV POWER NT2) is a Vietnam-based company operating in the energy industry, which operates and manages the 750-megawatt (MW) Nhon Trach 2 combined-cycle power plant located in Phuoc Khanh commune, Nhon Trach district, Dong Nai province. The electricity output of the power plant is purchased by Vietnam Electricity, and it is directly transmitted into the national grid system.
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