reports
- Hoai Trinh
NT2 – Earnings will turnaround in 2024, but valuation looks fair
We forecast a negative YoY growth in Q4 2023 earnings for NT2, influenced by (1) a major overhaul in October and (2) lower FMP prices compared to the Pc. We expect that NT2's Q4 earnings will primarily derive from Contract for Differences (CfD), while earnings from the spot market are expected to be minimal. Consequently, we project NT2's Q4 2023 revenue and NPAT to be approximately VND 1,133 bn (+39% QoQ and -41% YoY) and VND 8.3 bn (-95% YoY), respectively. Accordingly, the revenue and NPAT ...
- Hoai Trinh
NT2 – Tough in the near term, but negatives partly priced in
Full electricity market prices were down significantly in August, falling to 783 VND/kWh (-48.2% YoY). This abrupt decline is primarily attributable to the numerous bouts of heavy rain that occurred in both the North and South in July and August. Due to the significant rainfall, hydroelectric power plant reservoirs received an increase in water flow. Falling temperatures also resulted in a decrease in the consumption of electricity and the mobilization of thermal power plants. NT2 recorded 36...
- Hoai Trinh
NT2 – Q2/2023: Lower-than-expected earnings due to a gas supply insuf...
In Q2/2023, NT2 reported lower-than-expected results, with a power output of 1,054 mn kWh (-2.0% QoQ, -10.8% YoY), while the average gas input price is 8.9 USD/mn BTU (+0.8% QoQ, -12.2% YoY). NT2's revenue and NPAT respectively recorded VND2,183 bn (flat QoQ, -19% YoY) and VND 144 bn (-38.3% QoQ, -60.5% YoY). The substantial decline in NPAT was primarily due to a gas supply insufficiency. For FY2023, we lower NT2's net revenue forecast to VND 7,538 bn (-14.2% YoY), assuming (1) lower powe...
PetroVietnam Power Nhon Trach 2 JSC: 1 director
A director at PetroVietnam Power Nhon Trach 2 JSC bought 48,200 shares at 0.000VND and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the l...
- Hoai Trinh
NT2 – Strong Q1/2023 earnings because of increased output and lower ga...
NT2 reported its Q1/2023 business results with total electricity output of 1,075 mn kWh (+9% QoQ, +8% YoY), while input prices decreased slightly, averaging 8.9 USD/mn BTU (-5% YoY). Revenue and NPAT were recorded at VND 2,183 bn (+9% YoY) and VND 234 bn (+47% YoY), respectively. NT2’s Q1/2023 performance is in line with our expectations. However, we reduce our estimates of electricity output for FY2023 to 4.1 bn kWh (+0.7% YoY) as (1) major maintenance in Q3 (from September 17th to the e...
- Hoai Trinh
NT2 – Better dividend prospects in 2023
9M22 electricity output recovered, earnings exceeded full-year target. For 2022, we expect net revenue and NPAT-MI to be VND 8,916 bn/ USD 380 mn (+45% YoY) and VND 762 bn/ USD 32.5 mn (+43% YoY), respectively, assuming that NT2 continues to make the remaining VND 173 bn for bad debt provision in Q4/2022 (total provision in 2022 was VND 360 bn). 2023 awaits higher earnings, better cash dividends. For 2023, we expect NT2 to record the remaining financial revenue from FX reversal. As a result, ...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board NT2 – AGM Update
· The AGM approved 2022 financial guidance, which targeted revenue and NPAT to be VND 8,128 bn (or USD 353.4 mn, +32% YoY) and VND 468 bn (or USD 20 mn, -12% YoY), respectively. Actual cash dividends for the year 2021 exceeded the 2021’s guideline by 10% to VND 1,650. · Core earnings in 1H2022 are higher than expected thanks to an increase of mobilized volume and selling price. Revenue and NPAT in 2022 are forecasted to be VND 7,946 bn (or USD 326 mn, +29% YoY) and VND...
- Son Tran
Result Update Report: NT2 - Bottom line to surge
“We believe that NT2 stock price is off to surge as we expect to see a robust earnings growth in 2Q2022 given (1) favorable condition for gas-turbine plants due to coal shortage, and seasonal factor, and (2) an extremely low base of earnings in 2Q2021. In addition, we expect the company will receive additional revenue from FX reversal and solid cash flows (company had paid all borrowings back in June 2021) to provide a meaningful buffer for NT2’s earnings in 2022F-23F against future headwinds. ...
- Kiet Tran
- Lam Nguyen
- Tung Do
Vietnam Strategy: April 2022 – Tailwinds from AGM and earnings season
We remain positive on Vietnam equities in the long term due to the following structural catalysts: better domestic demand, companies’ earnings prospect, economic activities and FDI inflows on the back of broader economic reopening and fiscal stimulus package disbursement. These factors will provide an efficient buffer against higher, albeit in control, inflation and external risks namely geopolitical uncertainties and slowing global growth. We also see upside potential from the perspective of...
ACB ASIA COMMERCIAL BANK
FPT FPT
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ANV NAM VIET
PNJ PHU NHUAN JEWELRY JSC
MBB MILITARY COMMERCIAL JOINT STOCK BANK
NT2 PETROVIETNAM POWER NHONTRACH 2
QNS QUANG NGAI SUGAR
VPB VIETNAM PROSPERITY JOINT-STOCK COMMERCIAL BANK
TCB VIETNAM TECHNOLOGICAL AND COMMERCIAL JOINT STOCK BANK
- Thao Nguyen
PetroVietnam Nhon Trach 2 Power: Oil price surge is a short-term downs...
In Q4 21, revenue grew by 23% yoy to VND1.635bn (or US$71mn) while NPAT experienced an adverse trend, declining by 40% yoy to VND121bn (or US$5.3mn). For FY 21, the company exceeded its guideline by 16% to VND534bn (or US$23mn). Core business earnings in 2022 might not be attractive for investors, but the company's cash flow and FX revenue will be. We forecast NPAT at VND567bn (or US$25mn), +6% yoy. However, in the short term, geopolitical tensions might push gas prices up that will make the ...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board NT2 – Oil price surge is a short-term downside risk
· In 4Q2021, revenue grew by 23% YoY to VND 1.635 bn (or USD 71 mn) while NPAT experienced an adverse trend, declining by 40% YoY to VND 121 bn (or USD 5.3 mn). For the year 2021, the company exceeded its guideline by 16% to VND 534 bn (or USD 23 mn). · In 2022, the company has contracted volume of 3.55 bn kWh, +8% YoY. Core business earnings in 2022 might not be attractive for investors yet the cash flows and FX revenue will be. We forecast NPAT to be VND 567 bn (or US...
- Thao Dang
PetroVietnam Nhon Trach 2 Power: Despite the low volume in Q3 21, reve...
Volume in Q3 21 reached 461mn kWh, -40% yoy and -52% qoq. The company provided extremely low volume in Q3 21 because of low demand, which was affected by the strict lockdown in HCMC and the south of Vietnam. The company only provided roughly half of its contract volume. Despite the low volume, revenue in Q3 21 was VND1,250bn (or US$54mn), +8% yoy and -23% qoq thanks to the compensation revenue that was ensured by contract volume. Meanwhile, COGS declined by 13% qoq and -161% yoy in line with ...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board NT2 – Surprise earnings in 3Q2021 thanks to external...
Volume in 3Q2021 reached 461 million kWh, -40% YoY and -52% QoQ. The company provided extremely low volume in 3Q2021 because of low demand, which was affected by the strict lockdown in HCMC and the South of Vietnam. The company only provided roughly half of its contract volume. Despite the low volume, revenue in 3Q2021 was VND 1,250 billion (or USD 54 million), +8% YoY and -23% QoQ thanks to the compensation revenue that was ensured by contract volume. Meanwhile, COGSs declined by 13%...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board NT2 – Benefiting from high Qc in 3Q2021
8M 2021 volume was 2,294 mn kWh, -27% YoY due to thermal industry difficulties. For the first two months in 3Q2021, volume reached 385 mn kWh, accounting for 67% of the contract volume. We estimate that the company will only provide roughly 50 mn kWh due to the low demand and its maintenance. Thus, we forecast that 3Q2021’s volume to be 435 mn kWh, lower than its contract volume of 907 mn kWh. 8M 2021 revenue was VND 4,149 bn (or USD 180 mn) -12% YoY. For 2 months in 3Q2021, revenue reached V...
- Thao Nguyen
PetroVietnam Nhon Trach 2 Power: Modest earnings, but prosperous cash ...
We maintain our target price for NT2 at VND 25,600, offering a 16% upside from the closing price on 13 April 2021. Although NT2 is going to pay the 2020 dividend of VND1,000 as stated in the AGM proposal, we believe NT2 will also pay out most of its spare cash as 2021 dividend under POW’s domination (59% ownership) when the company finishes its debt obligation in 2021. Thus, we recommend investors, particularly those seeking high dividend yield, to Accumulate NT2 this year. DRY WEATHER RESULT...
- Trinh Nguyen
PetroVietnam Nhon Trach 2 Power: Prepared for a rainy day
NT2 made a net loss in the last quarter due to both unfavourable electricity market conditions and stopping production for maintenance. We think NT2 is ahead in terms of preparing for a rainy day as the company is lowering its minimum operating capacity in order to improve its revenue during off-peak hours. Considering that 2021 will be a low period year for thermal power companies, NT2 will regardless achieve net profit growth. Ultimately, NT2 will paying off all debts by the end of 2021 and...
NT2 - Rising gas prices erodes core earnings
From 2018, the contract volume (Qc) of NT2 was reduced by 5.5% to 4,025 million. As PPA contracts of power plants were designed with a certain amount of Qc to ensure stable profit level for the plants against volatility in input prices, lower Qc also means higher risk. In addition, since the average gas price of NT2 in the first half of 2018 has increased by 21% YoY and almost doubled from 2016, we believe that gas input price is a significant risk for NT2. In the longer term, a reduction in ...
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