reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q4 23 review: Turning the corner as ARPU grew after more ...
Thai operators witnessed a notable uptick in growth as industry mobile ARPU reverted to growth after more than three years. EBITDA also bounced higher led by TRUE, setting the stage for 9-11% growth in FY24. Guided capex also suggests moderating capex intensity which is key driver of ROIC upside. The outlook is turning more optimistic than before, validated by our recent visit of the two telcos.
- Chris Hoare
Asia Telco Tour Feedback, Improving growth, ROCE and shareholder remun...
We ran our Asia Telco tour last week. This time we met 12 companies in 3 countries (Korea, Japan, Thailand). Telco share prices in all 3 of these countries have been pretty strong recently as telcos continue to benefit from generally positive themes: growth, return on capital and shareholder remuneration are all typically improving.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Takeaways from Meetings with the Thai Telcos in Bangkok
Our meetings with the two Thai operators (& NBTC) validate our view of a benign mobile dynamic, supported by improving tourism, and sharp capex reductions. Both operators remain focused on profitable growth. TRUE seems very confident on synergy delivery.
- Chris Hoare
ASEAN Telcos Outlook 2024; Continued market repair in Indonesia, Thai...
After a decent 2023, in 2024 we are likely to see further evidence of market repair in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia driven by consolidation in both Mobile and Broadband. The economic outlook in the region is generally positive too, helped by post-Covid tailwinds, and China decoupling.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q3 23 review: Market continues to repair
Market repair drove faster revenue growth and rising margins for both AIS and TRUE. For mobile, AIS is finally back to positive ARPU YoY growth after fourteen quarters of YoY declines. This suggests to us that the outlook turning more optimistic than before.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
TRUE (Buy, TP: THB12.5, +108%) Duopoly and merger synergies create st...
We diligence TRUE’s synergy guidance, finding it is reasonable/conservative. The best EM Telcos stocks recently have been those directly involved in in-market mergers in markets repairing (think Bharti, IOH, CelcomDigi, TIM Brasil).
- Chris Hoare
AIS (Buy, TP: THB285, +28%) AIS (Buy) – Thai regulator greenlights th...
Last Friday, the NBTC has approved the acquisition of Triple T Broadband (3BB) by AIS. This moves the Thai operator up to the top spot in the fixed broadband market with c.36% on our estimates. The remedies were fairly reasonable in our view.
- Chris Hoare
TRUE Corp (Buy, TP: THB 9.1, +53%) Potential hiccup to merger with re...
Yesterday, the Thai Supreme Court reversed the Central Administrative Court's earlier ruling and forced it to accept the lawsuit filed by the Thailand Consumers Council ("TCC") against the NBTC in relation to the TRUE-DTAC merger. Shares of TRUE have fallen sharply today, down over 9% on the news. Our thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Feedback from Meetings with AIS and True in Thailand
Our meetings with the two Thai operators validate our view of a benign mobile dynamic, supported by improving tourism, easing inflation and lower energy costs. Importantly, both operators are focused on profitable growth whilst capex is also shifting in the right direction.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q2 23 review: Moving in the right direction; further boos...
Thai telcos reported a decent quarter, with the outlook turning more optimistic than before. Topline, mobile ARPU growth, alongside margins and capex are all moving in the right direction. Additional tailwind would come in the form of the THB10k(USD280) payout per adult which was introduced by the new government, while aiming to lower energy costs and further promote tourism in the country
True Corporation Public Company Ltd: 1 director
A director at True Corporation Public Company Ltd sold 119,400 shares at 7.050THB and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the la...
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Thai Telcos Tale of the tape
The picture for Thai telcos is turning positive with clear signs of mobile recovery, driven by softer competition and inflation. Recent political uncertainty has led to slower growth in recent months we think, but growth in both Broadband and Enterprise is structural and should rebound as the political fog clears. In an improving market, AIS remains our top pick.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?
For 15 years, EM Telcos were engaged in a war for market share, with price the primary weapon. But peace is now breaking out globally. Mobile prices are rising across global EM (India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand among others). In this note, we analyze which markets have the greatest potential for recovery, based on 3 criteria: affordability, market structure and challenger returns.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kong Ho Meng
- Malaysia Research Team
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Waritthorn Kaewmuang
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, July 31, 2023
GREATER CHINA Strategy The Reflation Trade: NAFR's support for increased credit for consumption and investment is significant; it is time to consider the reflation trade. Sector Property: High interest rates remain a major risk; recovery of tourism spending partially offset by strong outbound travel of Hong Kong residents. INDONESIA Results Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ/HOLD/Rp3,270/Target: Rp3,400): 2Q23: Weak Lebaran sales could work against valuation. Downgrade to HOLD. Mitra Adiperkasa...
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
LPPF PT MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE TBK CLASS A
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
SCC-R SIAM CEMENT (NVDR)
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
STM SEATRIUM LTD
- Waritthorn Kaewmuang
True Corporation (TRUE TB) - 2Q23: Heavy Losses On One-Off Items; Sign...
TRUE posted a large net loss in 2Q23 due to a few one-off items. However, there are signs of positive improvement following the amalgamation in Mar 23 on the back of limited ARPU reduction and EBITDA margin expansion. Despite disappointing 1H23 results, the worst should have passed and a considerable improvement is expected in 2H23. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt8.20.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Waritthorn Kaewmuang
Thailand Daily - Monday, July 31, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results True Corporation (TRUE TB/BUY/Bt7.20/Target: Bt8.20) 2Q23: Heavy losses on one-off items; signs of improvement observed. Upgrade to BUY. Update Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt66.75/Target: Bt80.00) 2Q23 results preview: Expect earnings to increase 21% yoy and 2% qoq. PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB/BUY/Bt21.10/Target: Bt29.00) 2Q23 results preview: Expect earnings to decrease qoq and yoy. Ratchaburi Group PCL (RATCH TB/BUY/Bt35.00/Target: Bt50.00) Share price correction...
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q1 23: Slowdown in India, elsewhere strong
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q1 driven by price increases in India lapping. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 9%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
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