reports
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBP1.5, +42%) Q4 24: Decent, Solid top line b...
Airtel Africa has published a decent set of Q4 results. Top line performance remained strong, service revenue growth in local currency came in above consensus expectations and above our expectations. EBITDA trends slowed (but remained decent given the macro context in Q1) and margins came in 1pp below consensus and us.
- Chris Hoare
South African Telcos South African Telcos - CY23 H2 review – Modest i...
H2 was a better semester for the SA Telcos. Service revenue and EBITDA trends improved and capex – while still above historic levels – was contained. However, improvements were modest as the environment remains difficult and growth remains limited.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African Telcos Deep dive on Fintech valuations; stay Bullish on AAF a...
We deep dive on African Telco’s Fintech valuations in this note which is a follow up of our higher-level note Show me the (Mobile) Money. African Telcos are becoming more active about unlocking value from Mobile Money (MoMo) with MTN’s recent deal with Mastercard and now rumours that AAF is looking to IPO its MoMo business. Global Fintech/Payments multiples have derated over the past couple of years, but we continue to see great value in the African Telco’s MoMo assets which remain one the key n...
- Chris Hoare
5G FWA in EM Poor man’s paradise; income and propensity to spend sugg...
This is the 3rd in a series of notes looking at FWA (see HERE and HERE). Like us, the market appears to be getting more bullish on FWA in EM, and a series of events such as Jio’s launch suggest FWA could be a significant use case for 5G in Emerging Markets.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Good performance in a challenging macro ...
Q2 was a good quarter for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators which continue to benefit from strong fundamentals. Trends accelerated across the board in Nigeria as well as in the other geographies, margins were decent and the capex intensity slowed this quarter.
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q2 23: Slightly slower driven by China
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q2 again driven by a slower quarter in China. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 8.5%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates, as they have been now for 3 years. With the rates cycle seemingly peaking, macro headwinds may also start to improve, and we continue to believe that EM Telcos are still not in our view priced for mid-term GDP+ growth, and rising returns.
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $10, +104%) Further thoughts on IHS’ MTN contrac...
10 days ago MTN announced it would not be renewing a contract for 2,500 tenancies with IHS in Nigeria. This is a global first in the Towers space we believe (a financially healthy operator choosing not to renew an expiring tower contract).
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Nigerian Telcos Faster quarter, strong underlying trends but larger F...
Underlying performance remained strong for both MTN and AAF which saw an improvement in top line and EBITDA trends. However, macro challenges remain and the devaluation of Naira will have a greater impact on headline numbers next quarter.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?
For 15 years, EM Telcos were engaged in a war for market share, with price the primary weapon. But peace is now breaking out globally. Mobile prices are rising across global EM (India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand among others). In this note, we analyze which markets have the greatest potential for recovery, based on 3 criteria: affordability, market structure and challenger returns.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR250, +79%) MTN Group - Q2 23: Solid results, Fintech...
MTN has reported a solid set of Q2 results. Group service revenue trends were stable while EBITDA trends accelerated. But the key announcement today was that of a commercial partnership through the signature of a MoU for a minority investment with Mastercard on the fintech side.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q1 23: Slowdown in India, elsewhere strong
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q1 driven by price increases in India lapping. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 9%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
EM Telcos Validating the Enterprise thesis
In this note we revisit and update our thesis that Enterprise in EM is following an S-Curve. Key new work shows that as a result, absolute incremental Enterprise revenue in China has doubled each year for the past 3 years. This is why overall Telco revenues have sharply accelerated. We show the other countries/ stocks where the early signs are of the same thing happening.
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