reports
Indian Telcos Q4 FY25 review: Stay constructive
India’s mobile sector sustained mid-teen growth again, though we expect a slowdown to high single digits from 2QFY25 onwards once last July’s tariff increase is lapped. Margin expansion remains a theme too. We stay constructive on India with Bharti Airtel as our preferred pick, but would continue to see Singtel as having more upside.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...
It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth
We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in our 4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments. A historic selloff ensued. We then discussed last week (4/8/25 Compass) ho...
- Chris Hoare
Vodafone Idea (Neutral, TP: INR 10, +20%) Government to more than dou...
Over the weekend, Vodafone Idea announced that the government will more than double their equity stake to 48.99% from 22.6% through the conversion of INR 369.5bn (US$ 4.3bn) in spectrum dues. As of this writing, the stock spiked up by 19% today. Further to what we had previously written on the nationalisation of Vodafone Idea, we lay out our initial thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q3 FY25 review: Sustained margin expansion from July’s ...
Trends continued to benefit from last July’s tariff hike with sustained margin expansion across all three operators. Capex intensity is expected to moderate further for Bharti as network build decelerates, whereas VIL would accelerate its spending on the back of its 5G launch in March. India’s FWA development remains promising, with potential positive implications on EM Telcos
- Chris Hoare
EM FWA-Watch S-Curve continuing to accelerate in India, with implicat...
Indian FWA net adds continue to accelerate and reached roughly c. 2.1m in the December quarter. India is probably therefore now accounting for around 50% of global shipments. We continue to think this is a critical development, and likely to drive an S-curve of adoption in Global EM.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos & Towers News reports that the Indian government may vo...
Indian press is reporting that the Indian government is planning to cut AGR liabilities for the industry by around INR 1 trn (c. $12bn), by cutting 50% of interest and 100% of penalties and interest on penalties relating to the AGR fines. Implication would be a c. INR 520bn (US$ 6.2bn) reduction in liabilities for Vodafone IDEA and around INR 380bn (US $4.5bn) for Bharti.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos & Towers What to expect in 2025: FWA S-curve enables mo...
FWA will likely be the key themes of 2025 in Indian Telcos we think, with the market likely to be delivering 5m+ quarterly net adds by the end of the year. This is likely to drive renewed optimism towards Bharti and enable Jio to IPO. Given Jio’s valuation of approaching $200bn if it happens this is likely to be one of the biggest events in Global Telecoms this year. On rolling forward our DCF our Indus pt rises to INR 325 and we lift our recommendation to Neutral, and stay Buyers of both Bharti...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile VIL – Nationalisation beckons, and implications for Bha...
With the company unlikely to have been able to engineer a meaningful recovery by the end of the moratorium on payments to the govt, and the stock trading below the level at which it can issue new shares, we see the most likely outcome now as creeping nationalisation. Bad for VIL, but great for Bharti and Jio. We discuss implications for Indus in a separate note out today.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Rumours that Middle East Sovereign Wealth Funds are bid...
Various Middle Eastern Newspapers have reported that both QIA and ADIA are in early stage talks to buy the Indian Govt’s stake in VIL. We see this as a bearish development for the other Indian telcos, and potentially for VIL too.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q1 FY25 review: Slower mobile with modest rise in margi...
Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Neutral, TP: INR 1,500, +3%) Bharti Global to acquire ...
Bharti Enterprise's investment arm, Bharti Global, has sought to acquire 24.5% stake in BT from Altice UK. Although Bharti Airtel is separately owned by Bharti Enterprise (through Bharti Telecom), we share our thoughts on why we perceive this to be a likely overhang on Bharti Airtel.
- Chris Hoare
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