reports
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Bharti follows Jio with price hikes, but perhaps not as...
Bharti has immediately followed Jio's price hike announcement, with an announcement that it is set to raise its mobile prices by between 10% and 21%. We calculate the average increase is slightly lower than Jio. The change would be effective from 3rd July too which means the full impact of the tariff hike would only be felt from Q3 FY25.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Price hikes priced in?
Jio leads India's first mobile hike since December 2021; we expect peers to follow. The announcement was made after the conclusion of the spectrum auction where Jio only participated modestly. This is thus structurally positive. However, that both Bharti and VIL are trading down on this news is indicative of how much good news is already priced into Indian mobile. Our thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile India's auction concludes - Our final thoughts
India's spectrum auction concluded yesterday with 141.4 MHz of airwaves being sold across the 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 2500 MHz band for INR 113 bn (US$ 1.36bn). Our proprietary spectrum analytics tool (SpectrumHub) suggests that prices paid were largely in line with the reserve prices, and close to our original expectations.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Indian Spectrum Auction – Day 1 results confirm modest ...
After further ado, India entered its 10th spectrum auction yesterday with 10,523 MHz of airwaves worth INR 963bn (US$ 11.3 bn), at reserve prices. While Jio has no renewals until 2030, both Bharti and Vodafone Idea have some of their 900 MHz and 1800 MHz band up for renewals this year, in six and two circles respectively. Preliminary analysis suggests that bidding will take on a modest tone unlike in 2022, as validated by Day 1's results, and as we expected. Our thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile VIL Capital Increase – should you participate and what ...
Sometimes the markets behave in ways that appear irrational. VIL having sufficient market cap to launch an INR 200bn ($2.4bn) capital increase despite (in our view) being a failing business is one example. But what does it mean for Bharti, Jio and Indus?
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Indian Mobile Q3 FY24 review: Still tracking well even without tariff...
India’s telecom industry continue to grow in the HSD, with Bharti and Jio improving at the expense of VIL. Industry ARPU tracked MSD again even without any meaningful tariff hikes; we expect increases to be put through in 2H CY24 though that has largely been priced in. EBITDA continue to trend ahead of topline, with YoY margins improvement across the board. Earlier last month, the government also approved the auction for 10,523 MHz of spectrum which starts from INR 963bn (USD 11.6bn). However, w...
- Chris Hoare
Vodafone IDEA (Reduce, TP: INR 5, -63%) Vodafone Idea approves USD 2....
Yesterday, Vodafone Idea's board approved INR 200bn (USD 2.4bn) in equity raise to fund its 4G expansion and 5G rollout. After the equity raise, the company then wants to attempt to raise a further c. INR 250bn in debt. In aggregate, therefore the company is hoping to raise INR 450bn (USD 5.4bn). Even if successful (we are sceptical), we do not think this is enough. Shares were down sharply by 14% today. Our thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,500, +34%) Marginal margin continuing t...
Following a very strong H2 2023, Bharti has retraced nearly INR 100/share. We remain bullish and would see the sell-down as a buying opportunity. Consensus forecasts continue to look too low to us; in this note we focus on the consumer margin, which we think is likely to surprise to the upside.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,400, +26%) Q3 FY24 Quick Take: In-line,...
Excluding the Naira devaluation impact, Bharti Airtel reported in-line results for its Indian businesses, with sustained margin expansion again. Indian mobile performance remained strong, with ARPU and revenue growth ahead of peers ahead. Trends also remained strong for Home Services, with Digital TV seeing a nice acceleration post the inflection last quarter.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
5G FWA in EM Poor man’s paradise; income and propensity to spend sugg...
This is the 3rd in a series of notes looking at FWA (see HERE and HERE). Like us, the market appears to be getting more bullish on FWA in EM, and a series of events such as Jio’s launch suggest FWA could be a significant use case for 5G in Emerging Markets.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Q2 FY24 review: Core mobile still decent, with margin i...
India’s telecom industry continue to grow in the HSD, with Bharti outperforming on mobile service revenue growth on a YoY basis again. Whilst Jio posted better net additions, its ARPU trend was softer. Bharti’s Enterprise business did slow down however, largely a function of the deferred spending by global OTT players driven by current global macro.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q2 23: Slightly slower driven by China
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q2 again driven by a slower quarter in China. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 8.5%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates, as they have been now for 3 years. With the rates cycle seemingly peaking, macro headwinds may also start to improve, and we continue to believe that EM Telcos are still not in our view priced for mid-term GDP+ growth, and rising returns.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Q1 FY24 review: Outperformance by Bharti
India’s telecom industry maintained a healthy growth in Q1, with Bharti outperforming on mobile service revenue growth, supported by a better ARPU trend relative to peers. Whilst Jio posted better net additions, its ARPU trend was softer. The impact from the Jio Bharat (low priced smartphone and a cheaper plan) which was introduced in July remains to be seen, however we estimated the impact to be minimal to Bharti but material to VIL given its higher mix of featurephone users
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?
For 15 years, EM Telcos were engaged in a war for market share, with price the primary weapon. But peace is now breaking out globally. Mobile prices are rising across global EM (India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand among others). In this note, we analyze which markets have the greatest potential for recovery, based on 3 criteria: affordability, market structure and challenger returns.
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