Indian Telcos Q4 FY25 review: Stay constructive

India’s mobile sector sustained mid-teen growth again, though we expect a slowdown to high single digits from 2QFY25 onwards once last July’s tariff increase is lapped. Margin expansion remains a theme too. We stay constructive on India with Bharti Airtel as our preferred pick, but would continue to see Singtel as having more upside.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Millicom, Avianca, Minerva, JBS

Global EM Telcos M&A Cycle in-bound; buy the targets

With sentiment, leverage and cash flow all improving for EM Telcos we think we are approaching the point of the cycle where M&A is going to become more prevalent, and shift from bearish (in-market consolidation), to bullish (out of footprint). Investors should consider building portfolios based on likely targets. Who are they?

Latam Chart Book - 3 June 2025 - Lucror Analytics

The LatAm Chart Book features relative-value charts and bond tables by country.

Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...

It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Peru LNG, Auna, Orbia, Millicom, MercadoLibre, Iochpe-Maxion, Braskem Idesa

Millicom (Buy, TP: $46, +31%) On a path to $1bn EFCF. Upgrade target ...

Following our day spent with Millicom in Miami and Q1 results we review our model. Assuming the Colombian deal closes we now see the company on a path to $1bn EFCF once synergies are delivered. Dividends are likely to rise to over $4/share, driving the shares towards $50. We remain Buyers and upgrade our price target to US$46.

Bharti Airtel (Buy, INR 2,070, +13%) Q4 FY25 Quick Take: Dividend doub...

Bharti Airtel printed a decent EBITDA beat, supported by momentum in Domestic mobile and better margins in Enterprise thanks to a deliberate move away from lower margin commodity voice and messaging in global accounts.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: YPF, Falabella, Geopark, Canacol, Cencosud, TGS, Millicom, Klabin, C&W Communications, Movida, GOL, Orbia, Minerva, Suzano, Rumo, Investment Energy Resources, Simpar, Ultrapar

Millicom (Buy, TP: $36, +6%) Q1 25 – Slightly slower but still decent...

Millicom has reported a slower set of Q1 results and both service revenue and EBITDA came in a shade below consensus expectations. However, the EFCF performance was again strong, well above expectations and Q1 last year.

Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth

We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.

Reliance Industries (Buy, TP: INR 1,700, +26%) Q4 FY25 Quick Take: St...

Reliance Industries closed off FY25 with strong Retail and O2C topline growth, alongside continued strength in Jio’s profitability. The company has also proposed a INR 5.5 dividend per share, which was in-line with expectations.

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, April 25, 2025

GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...

Latam Chart Book - 15 April 2025 - Lucror Analytics

The LatAm Chart Book features relative-value charts and bond tables by country. For trade recommendations, please view our Trade Book published yesterday.

Latam Trade Book - 14 April 2025 - Lucror Analytics

In the latest edition of our LatAm Trade Book, we review most of our current trade recommendations. We also discuss key metrics of the issuers and how the bonds fare relative to peers. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our LatAm coverage.

Indosat Tbk Pt: 1 director

A director at Indosat Tbk Pt bought 300,000 shares at 1,520.000IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...

Global EM Telcos A Consistent Approach to EFCF and Shareholder Remune...

Amidst tariff-inspired chaos we introduce a consistent way to calculate Equity FCF for Global EM Telcos. Improvements in market structure and synergies from consolidation has led to a steep increase in sector cash flow.

Global EM Telcos & Japanese Telcos Tariffs – Impact on Global EM & Ja...

Perhaps the biggest surprise from last night’s White House announcement was the scale of tariffs imposed on Asian exporters (and South Africa). Being an ally of America provided no benefit with Thailand (36%) facing higher tariffs than China (34%). By contrast, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa are less negatively impacted, and may even benefit overall from dollar weakness. We run through likely implications for our coverage in Global EM and Japan. Spoiler alert: we see Rakuten as most negati...

Terminating coverage

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: KUO, Arcos Dorados, AES Andes, Millicom, CSN, Iochpe-Maxion, Braskem Idesa, FS Agrisolutions, Embraer