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Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/26/2024

‘Soft landing’... the term is in vogue and we think it aptly describes the current situation in the energy market. After a period of “excess profits”, the fundamentals are back in favour and prompt us to revise down our estimates for energy prices. - Alongside renewable energies, pockets of sustainable value creation are emerging for players capable of capitalising on the structural growth in volatility on the electricity markets but which are nonetheless trading at a discount In the U...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 09/26/2024

tonies is a pioneer in the children’s audio entertainment and educational industry, offering a screen-free and interactive listening experience (stories and music) through its Toniebox and Tonies figurines. With a proven track record of rapid international growth, portfolio expansion and strong brand recognition mainly in the DACH region (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) and North America, we see in the coming years: 1/ further strong revenue increases (CAGR 2024-2026e of 25%) with a...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/09/2024

“Soft landing”… le terme est à la mode et nous pensons qu’il caractérise bien la situation du marché de l’énergie aujourd’hui. Après une parenthèse de « surprofits », les fondamentaux reprennent leur droit et nous conduisent à réviser en baisse nos hypothèses de prix de l’énergie. A côté du renouvelable, des poches pérennes de création de valeur apparaissent pour les acteurs capables de profiter de la croissance structurelle de la volatilité des marchés électriques et qui souffrent ma...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 26/09/2024

tonies is a pioneer in the children’s audio entertainment and educational industry, offering a screen-free and interactive listening experience (stories and music) through its Toniebox and Tonies figurines. With a proven track record of rapid international growth, portfolio expansion and strong brand recognition mainly in the DACH region (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) and North America, we see in the coming years: 1/ further strong revenue increases (CAGR 2024-2026e of 25%) with a...

Konrad Zomer ... (+2)
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Stephane Beyazian

ODDO : More users switching provider in France, Italy and the UK

>More consumers are looking to change provider in France, Italy and UK - The Oliver Wyman consultancy published yesterday a survey with 7,000 consumers in five countries (see page 2). These studies are not indisputable but offer additional indicators.Mobile market: according to the survey, the desire to switch operator within 24 months is up sharply in Italy (27%, +9pp), the UK (31%, +6pp) and France (27%, +4pp). No major shifts in Germany (26%, +2pp) or Spain (2...

Ben Rickett ... (+3)
  • Ben Rickett
  • James Ratzer
  • Russell Waller

EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?

When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.

Konrad Zomer ... (+2)
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Stephane Beyazian

ODDO : Plus d’envies de résiliations en France, Italie et au Royaume-U...

>Les consommateurs veulent plus bouger en France, Italie et Royaume-Uni - La cabinet Oliver Wyman a publié hier un sondage auprès de 7 000 consommateurs dans 5 pays (Cf. page 2). Ces études ne sont pas incontestables mais offrent des indicateurs de plus.Marché mobile : selon l’étude, la volonté de changer d’opérateur d’ici 24 mois est en nette hausse en Italie (27%, +9pp), au R-U (31%, +6pp) et en France (27%, +4pp). Pas de grand changement en Allemagne (26%, +2p...

Stephane Beyazian
  • Stephane Beyazian

Deutsche Telekom : More limited shareholder returns at T-Mobile US in ...

>Rating downgraded before the October CMD and the group’s fibre plan for Germany - We have downgraded our rating to Neutral: (i) with the share price having achieved our adjusted target price of € 27 (due to the increase in the TMUS share price over the past two months); (ii) T-Mobile US has announced a still good, albeit more modest, shareholder returns than hoped which could mean that at its CMD in October Deutsche Telekom could also announce shareholder returns tha...

Stephane Beyazian
  • Stephane Beyazian

Deutsche Telekom : T-Mobile US ne retournera plus autant ; opinion aba...

>Opinion abaissée à Neutre avant le CMD d’octobre et son plan fibre pour l’Allemagne - Nous abaissons notre opinion à Neutre : 1/ le cours ayant désormais atteint notre objectif de cours ajusté à 27 € (en raison de la hausse du cours TMUS ces deux derniers mois); 2/ T-Mobile US a annoncé un retour actionnarial toujours bon mais plus modeste qu’espéré, ce qui pourrait aboutir à ce que Deutsche Telekom annonce aussi lors du CMD d’octobre de retourner moins que les atten...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 19 SEPTIEMBRE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: LAR ESPAÑA, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: BASF, DEUTSCHE TELEKOM, UNICREDIT. Finalmente la Fed se decanta por los 50 puntos de recorte Sesión de transición con leves caídas en las bolsas europeas, que cortó la racha alcista en el Ibex que le llevó a renovar máximos de 2015. Así, en el STOXX 600 tan sólo Autos y Energía esquivaron las caídas que estuvieron lideradas por Media, Alimentación y B. de Consumo. Por el lado macro, en la Eurozona la inflación mensual...

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Deutsche Telekom (Buy, €36, +36%) After TMUS, what's coming at its o...

T-Mobile’s CMD has just wrapped up – and earlier my colleague Jonathan put out a couple of notes running through the new guidance and some more detailed thoughts on the fundamentals. In this note, we increase our DT target to €36/ share and now review the implications from T-Mobile's CMD for DT and what this could mean for their own CMD on 10/ 11 October.

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+2)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/12/2024

We have upgraded our target price from € 43.4 to € 45.3 which factors in the growth strategy out to 2027 (EBITDA +5% to 6% p.a.) whereas the share price implies decrease of 0.65% p.a. The strategic GreenUp plan is based on three booster businesses that should see a gradual acceleration and will involve asset rotation. An accretive re-profiling in terms of EPS, and with no repercussions for the leverage limit, could also show through with minority buyouts for the regulated water operat...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+2)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 12/09/2024

Nous relevons notre objectif de cours de 43.4 € à 45.3 € qui intègre la stratégie de croissance à 2027 (EBITDA +5% à 6%/an) alors que le cours de Bourse sous-tend une baisse de 0.65%/an. Le plan stratégique GreenUp repose sur trois métiers Boosters qui doivent connaitre une accélération graduelle et impliquer des rotations d’actifs. Un reprofilage relutif en termes de BPA, et sans conséquence sur la limite de levier, pourrait aussi intervenir par le biais de rachats de minoritaires de...

Konrad Zomer ... (+2)
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Stephane Beyazian

ODDO : Are Starlink and AST SpaceMobile a threat to telecoms operators...

>T-Mobile & Starlink launch smartphone satellite connectivity - Yesterday, T-Mobile announced the first emergency services message to be sent by a Starlink satellite to a T-Mobile-subscribed smartphone. Shortly, calls, messages and even low-speed internet connectivity should be possible. Starlink has reserved ~175 satellites (out of ~7,000) for this service that T-Mobile should offer free-of-charge to its clients outside 5G coverage. While Satellite telephony is not n...

Konrad Zomer ... (+2)
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Stephane Beyazian

ODDO : Starlink et AST SpaceMobile menacent-ils les opérateurs télécom...

>T-Mobile & Starlink lancent la connectivité satellitaire par smartphone - T-Mobile a annoncé hier un premier envoi de message d’urgence par un satellite Starlink vers un smartphone abonné à T-Mobile. D’ici peu, appels, messages et même connectivité internet à faible vitesse seront possibles. Starlink a réservé ~175 satellites (sur ~7,000) pour ce service que T-Mobile devrait offrir gratuitement à ses clients hors couverture 5G. La téléphonie satellitaire n’est pas no...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. Despite our expectations for a short-term rally since our 8/13/24 Compass, we still see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain concerning. Current price action on the SPX is extremely similar to prior major...

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