In a legislative battle pitting the interests of T v. VZ and TMUS, the Senate held a hearing last week on the reauthorization of the FirstNet Authority (FNA), with the House holding another one this coming Wednesday. In this note, we analyze the first hearing as well as a draft House bill with an eye toward whether the upcoming Congressional action is likely to change the current economics of public safety communications for T, VZ, and TMUS.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
AT&T announced this morning that they have closed the Lumen fiber transaction. As part of this transaction, AT&T acquires over 4MM fiber locations and more than 1MM fiber customers in major markets. AT&T also acquires Lumen’s fiber build engine which should help accelerate fiber deployment. We published two comprehensive reports when the transaction was announced.
Our portfolio of Top Picks has started 2026 strongly, up 6% ytd already. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
Earlier today, we published our quick take on AT&T’s 4Q results and our note following the earnings call where we discussed some controversies heading into today’s results. This note focuses on the model update. Our subscriber estimate changes are modest. Revenue, EBITDA and FCF are slightly higher but within the guidance range. A full refresh reflecting the new reporting structure is forthcoming.
We shared our view of AT&T’s results this morning (note here). Results and guidance were solid. In this note following the earnings call and our multiple follow up conversations, we address key investor issues including 1) postpaid phone ARPU growth; 2) the pace of fiber deployment; 3) Internet Air net adds and ARPU growth; and 4) broadband ARPU growth. You see the trend, right? People care deeply about price and ARPU.
AT&T reported 4Q results and guidance this morning which largely met or topped expectations. Given the concerns about interior industry competitive dynamics (ok, price war fears), the fact that ARPU and net adds and ‘26 guidance are all pretty much where they should be is a healthy place to start 4Q results season.
We can’t remember a time when investors were as nervous about wireless earnings as they are going into 4Q25 results. We think this concern is by and large overblown and we will all come out feeling consoled on the other side of this earnings cycle. In this short note, we discuss the key controversies impacting the wireless sector currently and our perspective.
Tower revenue trends were slightly slower across the board except for Indus Towers as it benefited again from VIL’s network catch up spend. EBITDA margins were roughly stable across EM except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation. Africa continue to perform well and the LatAm Towers space had a decent Q3.
Tomorrow, weather permitting, the Senate Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on the FirstNet Authority (FNA). Generally, we don’t write about Congressional hearings as they focus on sound bites rather than policy relevant to investors. Here, however, the hearing could prove market relevant. FNA has a contract with T, but Congress must act if the FNA is to be reauthorized past 2027. And the battle over the terms of that reauthorization pits T v. VZ and TMUS. In this note we provide backg...
We are taking 3Q25 results and the most recent cNPS data and laying out our latest thinking and forecasts ahead of 4Q results. We expect 4Q results and attendant 2026 guidance to contain material information value for investors and we wanted to share our latest forecasts, data, and trends as a starting point as we navigate this impactful season.
XLast month, Cityfibre reported a sharp acceleration in its net add run rate due to its new deal with Sky – and a clear indication that Sky now intends to put all of its new FTTP customers in Cityfibre’s footprint on the Cityfibre network.
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