reports
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 1Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US, AT&T and IBM/Most value in 4-y...
The three largest mobile telecom operators in the USA - Verizon, T-Mobile USA, and AT&T - continue to perform well. IBM's performance also looks solid. Notable was the strong EBITDA performance for all three mobile telecom operators. We think the notes with a duration of c.4 years look attractive on a spread basis, while the steepness of the spread curve looks healthy. Furthermore, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US with a somewhat longer duration look attractive.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Great Replatforming, part I – the Special Theory
Capex ROI is the trending question these days, but what does it actually mean? In a “replatforming”, capex are enablers of revenue growth and productivity enhancements, as long as they are the foundation for a good “right to make money” (a defensible competitive advantage) and meet good demand. Our “Special Replatforming Theory” looks at how it has been at play for a decade already at hyperscalers, and how we expect the next 10 years to play out, with AI bringing an even more capital-intensive...
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Tanvi Arora
- Trung Nguyen
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Growth in Public Cloud: Where from? What’s next?
Growth in Public Cloud reaccelerated, in line with our expectations, and, if anything, even stronger than we thought, and shifting fast, with AI representing an increasing share of public cloud growth, and with the fast-growing crowd of native AI start-ups becoming a meaningful segment. We gathered all the initial datapoints at hand and looked at all angles we could, to provide a first perspective of how public cloud is growing today and where it is headed next.
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
- Trung Nguyen
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Loewen Play, TeamSystem, Eircom, United Group, Telecom Italia, Cheplapharm, Virgin Media O2, Tata Motors, Benteler International, Lottomatica (formerly Gamenet), Crown Holdings
- Chris Hoare
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, 265p, +47%) Was 240p Upside beyond the mythical £3bn FCF t...
BT’s target to reach £3bn FCF by the end of the decade has almost become mythical in status. Initially set back in 2021, is it the longest-standing piece of guidance (ever) in the telecoms sector? Quite possibly – and yet we are only half-way there.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos M&A Cycle in-bound; buy the targets
With sentiment, leverage and cash flow all improving for EM Telcos we think we are approaching the point of the cycle where M&A is going to become more prevalent, and shift from bearish (in-market consolidation), to bullish (out of footprint). Investors should consider building portfolios based on likely targets. Who are they?
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Timothy Rahill
Credit Outlook update/An unstoppable force against an immovable object
As we approach summer and reflect upon the already very busy and volatile first half of the year, we review our Credit Markets Outlook for 2025 and offer an update on our views, positioning and forecasts for the remainder of the year. We include our Picks and Pans on the Utilities, TMT, Real Estate and Bank sectors.
GFC GECINA SA
PBB DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG
PSA PUBLIC STORAGE
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
ORSTED ORSTED
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
ICAD ICADE SA
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
TEF TELEFONICA SA
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
GRDDY GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25: Telecom Infrastructure – Mobile stabilizes off the lows, ...
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and PCs. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 9% YoY. RAN spending is stabilizing, up l...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25 – Memory: all set for the upcoming HBM run.
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. DRAM COGS increased 9% YoY but was down 15% QoQ, along usual seasonality and with China curbs hurting Samsung’s HBM. The outlook remains strong, with all manufacturers expecting HBM revenues to more than d...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25 – Hyperscale & Cloud: Inference inflecting, more hints on 2...
Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Telecom Infrastructure, Memory, Enterprise IT, and PCs. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, and acce...
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Carole Braudeau
- Carole Braudeau
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...
It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Certified More Licenses
Over the past week, EchoStar has filed numerous new buildout reports at the FCC, increasing the number of licenses that will be preserved if the buildout deadline reverts to June 2025. In this brief note, we analyze the reports to determine the amount of additional license value that has been protected, and the value still at risk.
Deutsche Telekom AG: 1 director
A director at Deutsche Telekom AG sold after exercising options/sold 30,000 shares at 34.213EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directo...
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