We raise 2024 forecasts on China’s PV sales growth and PEV sales growth from +8%/+21% to +10%/+24% on bigger-than-expected subsidies for the cash-for-clunker program and zero downpayment auto loans. Meanwhile, we lift the target prices of BYD, Geely, GWM, GAC and Yadea to HK$160.00/HK$13.00/HK$13.50/HK$3.30 /HK$20.00 respectively. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD. Top BUY: CATL, Geely and Yadea. Top SELL: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng.
China’s PEV sales grew 9% yoy and 12% wow during the week of 15-21 Apr 24, implying a 44.9% market share. BYD, Zeekr and XPeng saw sales rebound during the week, in line with expectations; Aion, Li Auto and Tesla posted lower sales, below expectations. Tesla posted disappointing 1Q24 results on a sales drop, and cut prices of Model Y/3 by 5-6%. Li Auto also cut prices by 5-7%, intensifying the price war. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Yadea.
• Plunging sales & growing losses, severe price cuts & layoffs, failed FSD, M2 dropped for Robotaxi, and more, confirm that Elon Musk won't fix Tesla's most serious problems—which he created. • Yet he still demands his "unfathomable" pay package be restored, and his feckless, captured Tesla Board is doing exactly what he wants. • What Tesla’s Board should do, what it should have done years ago, is fire Elon Musk, the single greatest risk to Tesla’s future.
China’s PEV sales grew 21% yoy and 19% wow during the week of 8-14 Apr 24, implying a 46% market share. BYD, Li Auto and XPeng posted in-line sales during the week, while Tesla’s and Zeekr’s sales came in lower than expected due to competition. We expect Zeekr’s sales to recover, based on its better product qualities vs rivals and new model debuts. CATL posted in-line 1Q24 results with core earnings growing 19% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto, XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay.
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