Block is slowly fixing operational issues at Square which should enable a more balanced 2-sided ecosystem with Cash App. We saw stable GPV growth in Q3 (8% y/y) but better momentum through the quarter and into October (double digit).
We continue our series of Deep dives into Payments (see previous: Unified Commerce, and Rise of the Merchants) with a look at Real Time Payment (RTP) developments. Adoption has been rapid on a global basis, notably at the consumer level in markets like Brazil, though is a significant laggard in the US. Momentum here is, however, slowly building through FedNow (launched only in 2023) with banks/FIs stalling, but with consumer demand we think high and with a Visa/Mastercard interchange settlement ...
There’s a path to strategic success for Block and, if anyone can find it, it’s probably returned co-founder Jack Dorsey. He needs to fix operational issues at Square, reversing share losses, and seek out merchant growth. This should enable a more balanced 2-sided ecosystem with Cash App, providing additional utility for consumers. Cash App otherwise risks becoming “just another” wallet. Structural headwinds include: likely instant deposit declines and a more resurgent Venmo.
Valens Credit Research team highlights SQ which has a compelling bond offering that we believe the market is currently mispricing, with strong fundamentals, favorable management alignment, and an actionable trade.
- Credit markets are slightly overstating SQ's credit risk with a YTW of 5.842% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.308% and an Intrinsic CDS of 102bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating SQ's fundamental credit risk with its speculative Ba2 credit rating four notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As positives, most management members are material owners of SQ equity relative to their annual compensatio...
Credit markets are overstating SQ's credit risk with a YTW of 5.627% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.740% and an Intrinsic CDS of 65bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating SQ's fundamental credit risk with its speculative Ba2 credit rating four notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. As positives, most management members are material owners of SQ equity relative to their annual compensation, indicatin...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.