As US auto tariffs remain in place, investors need to assess whether auto-related government negotiations will be successful, and what automakers can do to mitigate the potential surge in costs. Analyst Julie Boote reviews potential outcomes.
In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
Following the recent results season where several leading semiconductor and SPE companies globally produced either disappointing results or guidance, we look at where the semiconductor industry is at present, where it looks to be headed in 2025 and identify opportunities in the Japanese IC / SPE space.
Toyota Motor (7203 JT) has traditionally been keen on holding on to its portfolio of strategic and non-strategic shareholdings, which it has built up over many years and regards as being mutually beneficial to all parties involved in terms of stability, protection from take-over and business interests. Based on analyst Julie Boote’s discussion with the company, this report provides an update on how Toyota’s thinking has evolved regarding the groups’ cross-shareholdings.
Toyota Motor (7203 JT) is likely to report a profit decline in FY24 Q2, as high expenses are set to more than offset moderate positive contributions from vol/mix/price and the currency. However, since this OP decline is anticipated (as per consensus numbers), the key focus should be on Toyota’s FY24 guidance: we view the automaker’s profit forecasts as conservative, leaving room for an upgrade.
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Given that the EV market is not a free market, led by demand and supply, but a distorted market, moved by political intervention in the form of subsidies (or lack of), making EV sales forecasts is very challenging indeed. This is a headache for analysts, but even more so for auto companies with a ten-year planning horizon. In this report, we outline the sales situation for different regions, as well as providing an outlook based on currently available information.
When the BoJ raised rates in March, it had been 17 years since it had last done so, though the world was very different then. While the July rate hike was unlikely to move the economic needle, the question now is what else might follow the subsequent financial market maelstrom. Pelham Smithers discusses the outlook for Japan’s macro environment, what new fiscal policies the new PM might introduce, how the BoJ might react and the all-important trend in corporate earnings. This then leads us to...
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