reports
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Ghana – Q1 24: Good start to the year
MTN Ghana has reported a good set of Q1 results. Service revenue growth accelerated and continued to grow well above inflation. EBITDA trends slowed but remain solid. Capex intensity was down vs. Q1 last year. Medium guidance for Service Revenue growth (“high twenties %”) has been reiterated. The macro is expected to remain challenging in 2024. However, there has been an encouraging slow down in inflation over Q1.
- Chris Hoare
South African Telcos South African Telcos - CY23 H2 review – Modest i...
H2 was a better semester for the SA Telcos. Service revenue and EBITDA trends improved and capex – while still above historic levels – was contained. However, improvements were modest as the environment remains difficult and growth remains limited.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 24 Quick Take: Strong to...
MTN Nigeria has reported a mixed set of results. Top line was quite strong, but EBITDA and the bottom line came in under pressure (as expected), driven mainly by the Naira devaluation in Q1. The company is cutting capex for this year.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African Telcos Deep dive on Fintech valuations; stay Bullish on AAF a...
We deep dive on African Telco’s Fintech valuations in this note which is a follow up of our higher-level note Show me the (Mobile) Money. African Telcos are becoming more active about unlocking value from Mobile Money (MoMo) with MTN’s recent deal with Mastercard and now rumours that AAF is looking to IPO its MoMo business. Global Fintech/Payments multiples have derated over the past couple of years, but we continue to see great value in the African Telco’s MoMo assets which remain one the key n...
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR200, +135%) MTN Rwanda – Q4 23 Quick take: Good unde...
MTN Rwanda has reported a solid set of Q4 numbers on an underlying basis (NSRe). Reported service revenue growth decelerated vs. Q3 impacted by the MTR cuts but EBITDA growth accelerated. Mid-term guidance for service revenue growth has been reiterated (“mid-teens service growth”) and the company targets a stable EBITDA margin.
MTNN Plc 2023FY Earnings Note - Foreign Exchange Losses Bite Deep
Strong Revenue Growth Offset by Higher Costs In its recently released 2023 full year (FY) financial result, MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTNN) observed higher revenue figures on a Year- on-Year (YoY) basis, recording a 22.69% YoY growth to NGN2.47trn in 2023FY. Topline growth was underpinned by a robust growth in Data Revenue (+39.90% YoY to NGN1.07trn), followed by an increase in Other Revenue (+16.01% YoY to NGN445.14bn) which consists of ancillary income streams such as rental income, dig...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR200, +134%) MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana – Q4 23: Solid...
MTN Nigeria reported Q4 results on Friday and held its earnings call yesterday. For our take on the results, including call feedback please click on the link below. We also provide our take on MTN Ghana which reported Q4s a day before MTN Nigeria.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African Telcos & Towers Outlook 2024; Fundamental strength masked by ...
2023 was a relatively tough year for African Telcos, with strong macro headwinds driving currency weakness and cost pressures. With inflation starting to subside some of this pressure is easing, although some African currencies may continue to weaken.
- Chris Hoare
African Towers and Telcos IHS offers improved terms to MTN Nigeria re...
Press reports that IHS has offered improved commercial terms to MTN Nigeria regarding the 2,500 towers previously lost to ATC. This suggests that as we previously wrote there must have been a material difference in commercial terms, with the corporate governance issue secondary. Increasing evidence of competition in contract renewals is negative for Towers and positive Telcos in EM.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Decent quarter in a challenging macro en...
Q3 was a decent quarter for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators. Fundamentals remain strong. We have updated forecasts post Q3 results, and our recommendations and target prices remain unchanged, except for Safaricom. AAF remains our preferred play in Africa.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Solid underlying top line and KPIs, mixed EBITDA; Q3 ...
Market service revenue growth slightly slowed but remained robust in Q3. Both MTN and AAF managed to grow underlying service revenue just above 20% YoY, which is a solid performance given the current macro-economic pressures and the absence of price increases.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
5G FWA in EM Poor man’s paradise; income and propensity to spend sugg...
This is the 3rd in a series of notes looking at FWA (see HERE and HERE). Like us, the market appears to be getting more bullish on FWA in EM, and a series of events such as Jio’s launch suggest FWA could be a significant use case for 5G in Emerging Markets.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR200, +110%) Q3 23: A slower quarter but MT guidance ...
MTN has reported a slower set of Q3 results with both revenue and EBITDA trends decelerated this quarter but overall performance remained decent given the macro economic context and inflection in the SA top line is encouraging.
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