Holmen AB: 5 directors

Three Directors at Holmen AB sold after exercising options/bought/maiden bought 4,777 shares at between 412.000SEK and 416.500SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trad...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/05/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations ...

Panoro Energy Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the Q1 operations and trading update. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK38 target price.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 gu...

• 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. • Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations are now back online. We project ~3,800 bbl/d WI production in Equatorial Guinea over 2Q-4Q25. • Output in Tunisia has increased compared to 4Q24 (1,467 bbl/d) foll...

Energy Morning - 7 May 2025

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Targets higher oil production at Maromba

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor reported Q1 results in line with expectations. However, we continue to see valuation downside due to Empire Wind risks and a likely sharp YOY drop in 2026e buybacks. OKEA also reported in-line Q1 results. In other news, Equinor announced it agreed to sell its 60% Peregrino stake at a solid price, although we believe the proceeds would have to support near-term shareholder returns to drive a positive share price reaction.

Panoro Energy ASA: 1 director

A director at Panoro Energy ASA maiden bought 25,000 shares at 23.150NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Frontline (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Front-row ticket to tanker potential

We believe the tanker fundamentals continue to look attractive, in particular for the VLCCs, with a highly manageable ~4% deliveries expected for 2025–2026. Further, we see potential positive catalysts in sanctions further restricting volumes transported on the dark fleet (possibly triggering scrapping postponed by shadow fleet deployment) and signs of a more aggressive volume strategy from OPEC+. Hence, we reiterate our BUY but have reduced out target price to NOK280 (295).

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), ...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 25/04/2025

Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Reserves addition much larger than expected – YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%). This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves - an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production. The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in G...

Solid NCS production in March

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for March showed liquids production of 1,972kboed (1.6% above its forecast) and gas production of 351mcm/d (0.4% above its forecast). Overall, production was 4.18mmboed (1.1% above its forecast), flat MOM, but down 4.9% YOY. Company-wise, the February production figures should be well known as most companies have already reported their production figures for Q1.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Reserves addition much larger than expec...

• YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%). This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves - an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production. • The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in Gabon coupled with the conversion of contingent resources into 2P reserves in EG. • In Gabon, YE24 WI...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 22 April 2025

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 18/04/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK47 per share: High production in Gabon – BW Energy reported gross production in Gabon of 39.3 mbbl/d. This equates to 6.9 mbbl/d net to Panoro’s 17.5% WI. IN OTHER NEWS ________________________________________ AMERICAS Galp Energia (GALP LI): 1Q25 update – 1Q25 production in Brazil was 104 mboe/d. Pantheon Resources (PNR LN): Disappointing well test results in Alaska – The Megrez-1 well fl...

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Growth momentum set to continue

Growth momentum set to continue Q1 profits reached a new quarterly all-time high, supported by surging customer activity and particularly strong brokerage income. We believe trading intensity is set to remain elevated in Q2, and see potential for further positive consensus earnings revisions. At a 2025e P/E of c20x, the valuation remains undemanding, in our view. We have raised 2025–2026e EPS by 3–6%, our target price to SEK370 (347), and reiterate our BUY.