reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
ADI ANALOG DEVICES INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
SCCO SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION
POWI POWER INTEGRATIONS INC.
ON ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION
MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
MCHP MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED
LDOS LEIDOS HOLDINGS INC.
JJSF J & J SNACK FOODS CORP.
HSY HERSHEY COMPANY
GPRE GREEN PLAINS INC.
GGG GRACO INC.
GD GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION
FORM FORMFACTOR INC.
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC.
CRL CHARLES RIVER LABORATORIES INTERNATIONAL INC.
BAH BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION CLASS A
ASH ASHLAND GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC.
APOG APOGEE ENTERPRISES INC.
BCPC BALCHEM CORPORATION
TECK.B TECK RESOURCES LIMITED CLASS B
COHU COHU INC.
CRUS CIRRUS LOGIC INC.
ENTG ENTEGRIS INC.
FSLR FIRST SOLAR INC.
LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
NX QUANEX BUILDING PRODUCTS CORPORATION
WFT.. WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PLC
RDY DR. REDDY'S LABORATORIES LTD. ADS
PI IMPINJ INC.
BHP BHP GROUP
ICHR ICHOR HOLDINGS LTD.
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
ELD ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION
CFB CROSSFIRST BANKSHARES
LHX L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES INC
HII. HORIZONS CDN INS
RVMD REVOLUTION MEDICINES
CARR CARRIER GLOBAL CORP.
UTZ UTZ BRANDS INC (A)
OTIS OTIS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION
FLNC FLUENCE ENERGY INC
STM STABILUS SE
ELVN IMARA INC
HEI HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC CO INC COM
AMKR 21SHARES MAKER ETP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. In terms of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, there are few things more bullish than indexes breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction that we had in 2022 -- but that is exactly what is happening. In last week's Compass (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&P 500, with all gaps left unfilled. This and the hea...
PSIX POWER SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONAL INC.
POWL POWELL INDUSTRIES INC.
LXU LSB INDUSTRIES INC.
IOSP INNOSPEC INC.
HUBB HUBBELL INCORPORATED CLASS B
ASPN ASPEN AEROGELS
CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY
GNRC GENERAC HOLDINGS INC.
KALU KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION
ODC OIL-DRI CORP. OF AMERICA
AA ALCOA CORPORATION
HWKN HAWKINS INC.
NOHA NORSK HYDRO ASA ADS
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
AWCMY ALUMINA LTD ADS
TROX TRONOX HOLDINGS PLC
VHI VALHI INC.
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
HWM HOWMET AEROSPACE INC.
- Jay Turner
Canada Emerging as a Preferred Jurisdiction for Green Investments by t...
In response to the economic disruption triggered by the global pandemic, many governments have incorporated a pivot to the green economy in their economic stimulus and tax relief response plans. As part of the economic recovery, DBRS Morningstar notes that global mining companies have increasingly embraced Canada as a preferred jurisdiction for investing in new technologies necessary to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. The main focus for most mining companies has been inv...
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Commodity redEYE - Iron Ore, sub-US$100/t
It’s late April – typically the peak of the China-dominated seasonal restocking cycle for iron ore’s seaborne trade. Landed prices for China’s imports should be relatively high right now + stable for at least the next 2-3 months. Instead, China’s Dalian exchange has reported a general 20-25% price slide over the last 6 weeks, with landed fines’ futures dipping below US$100/t this week – the lowest level since Dec-22. Yes, we’re ore price bears, but the speed/timing of this sell-off is a surprise...
- Ben Pirie
Mining Monthly: March Edition
What you need to know: • The precious metals and mining market significantly outperformed broader indices in the month of March with the GDX rising 15% versus the TSX being down slightly • Gold rallied heavily following the collapse of several major banks and the U.S. Fed guiding for a pause on rates in the near term • This month only strengthens our confidence that 2023 will be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals and encourage investors to position themselves accordingly ...
GFI GOLD FIELDS LTD. ADS
FNV. FRANCO-NEVADA CORPORATION
AGI. ALAMOS GOLD INC.
FM FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LTD.
AEM. AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED
EDG. ENDURANCE GOLD
RIO RIO TINTO LIMITED
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC
AGI RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
CG CENTERRA GOLD INC.
CMMC COPPER MOUNTAIN MINING CORP.
FNV FRANCO-NEVADA CORP
EQX EQUINOX GOLD
ITR INTEGRA RESOURCES
TUD TUDOR GOLD CORP.
ETU E2GOLD INC
OMG OMAI GOLD MINES CORP
FQM FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LTD
ENDG.F ENDURANCE GOLD CORPORATION
- Brian Szeto
- Jay Turner
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator stays on hold - Mills lack confidence on...
The Restocking Indicator stays on HOLD, and so matches up with our short-term expectation that iron ore prices will be range bound for the next couple of months. There has been an improvement in domestic demand, but no post-lockdown ‘fireworks’ in play. Certainly not enough to get China’s steel mills, or us, excited on the short-term steel/ore outlook. Worth keeping an eye on rising pollution levels, for this could prompt policy action and lift lump/pellet/high grade premiums – bullish for AAL/F...
- Brian Szeto
- Jay Turner
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Commodity redEYE - Iron Ore => demand forecast scenarios
It’s all happening, over in China. Based on Feb-22’s PMI data, economic activity has bounced out of lockdown-lows (again), an event that is coinciding nicely with China’s vast industrial base’s post-winter seasonal uptick. Got lots of excited investors asking us what the China-related upside risk is now, for the seaborne rust trade (China takes >70% of total trade). Problem is, for investable upside in China’s imports/prices, we need its central govt. to remove a perennial cap on the country’s t...
- Jay Turner
- Victor Vallance
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator down to SELL - Inventories grow fastest ...
The sharp market bounce in January would suggest that a strong fundamental lift is coming. Problem is, China’s steel mills haven’t seen it yet. Domestic demand has slightly improved, typical for this time of year, but inventories are rising at their fastest rate since Feb 2020. Possible timing issue for the Restocking Indicator, given the earlier Chinese New Year, but the signals move from Hold to SELL anyway. So, we tell investors to be cautious chasing this rally.
- Brian Szeto
- Jay Turner
Mining in 2023: Steady as It Goes
DBRS Morningstar's 2023 outlook for the credit profiles of the mining issuers in its rating universe remains neutral. Although benchmark iron ore, copper, aluminum, and metallurgical coal prices (based on Bloomberg consensus price forecasts as of January 4, 2023) are all expected to decline compared with 2022, prices are still expected to remain above historic norms. As a result, issuers' forecast operating cash flow and EBITDA are expected to be strong, which, combined with low debt levels, sho...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Awaiting Powell's Speech Today and CPI Thursday We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023. We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490). In our view, reducing risk near resistance and adding risk near support will be key to outperforming in 2023 (alongside Sector/stock selection). Shorter...
NEM NEWMONT CORPORATION
PGR PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION
NG. NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC.
FNV. FRANCO-NEVADA CORPORATION
CB CHUBB LIMITED
AGI. ALAMOS GOLD INC.
ABX. BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION
EGO ELDORADO GOLD CORP.
K. KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION
BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. CLASS B
AEM. AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED
IMG. IAMGOLD CORPORATION
KALU KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION
K3HD ALUMINUM CORP. OF CHINA LTD.
BVN... COMPANIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTURA SAA SPONSORED ADR
AA ALCOA CORPORATION
NOHA NORSK HYDRO ASA ADS
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
AWCMY ALUMINA LTD ADS
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
HWM HOWMET AEROSPACE INC.
BTG BERTELSMANN SE & CO. KGAA
- Sid Rajeev
PML. PANORO MINERALS LTD.
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
CORA CORA GOLD
GRDM GRID METALS
FG FALCON GOLD CORP.
NRM NORAM VENTURES INC
DBG DOUBLEVIEW GOLD CORP.
ETMC E3 METALS CORPORATION
BNXA BANXA HOLDINGS INC
GRSL GR SILVER MINING LTD.
GCM GRAN COLOMBIA GOLD CORP.
ATLY ALTALEY MINING CORPORATION
- Jay Turner
- Sean Sexton
- Jay Turner
- Sean Sexton
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Risk Appetites Improving While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites. Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors; the fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls. Risk-On Signals. We are seei...
WYNN WYNN RESORTS LIMITED
MAS MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
MAR MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC. CLASS A
LVS LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP.
IGT INTERNATIONAL GAME TECHNOLOGY PLC
H HYATT HOTELS CORPORATION CLASS A
CHH CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL INC.
CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY
KALU KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION
K3HD ALUMINUM CORP. OF CHINA LTD.
AA ALCOA CORPORATION
HGV HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC.
HLT HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC
PK PARK HOTELS & RESORTS INC.
NOHA NORSK HYDRO ASA ADS
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
WH WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS INC.
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
HWM HOWMET AEROSPACE INC.
TNL TRAVEL PLUS LEISURE CO
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
XPO XPO LOGISTICS INC.
VCEL VERICEL
TWOU 2U INC.
TRIP TRIPADVISOR INC.
STAA STAAR SURGICAL CO.
PKXN POSCO
PENN PENN NATIONAL GAMING INC.
OLED UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORPORATION
NVTA INVITAE CORP
NTGR NETGEAR INC.
MITK MITEK SYSTEMS INC.
DOX AMDOCS LIMITED
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
AMRS AMYRIS
MHK MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC.
SWKS SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS INC.
CRUS CIRRUS LOGIC INC.
HMCn HONDA MOTOR ADS
LEG LEGGETT & PLATT INCORPORATED
K3HD ALUMINUM CORP. OF CHINA LTD.
TPIC TPI COMPOSITES INC.
CRSP CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG
ROKU ROKU INC. CLASS A
ZLAB ZAI LAB LTD. SPONSORED ADR
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
BAND BANDWIDTH CLASS A
KRYS KRYSTAL BIOTECH INC
STNE STONECO
ZM ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
CVET COVETRUS
AMK ASSETMARK FINANCIAL HOLDINGS
CSTL CASTLE BIOSCIENCES
SCU SCULPTOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC (A)
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC CLASS A
CVAC CUREVAC NV
OI O-I GLASS INC
BFLY BUTTERFLY NETWORK INC (A)
SDGR SCHRODINGER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
MAN MANPOWERGROUP
MMM 3M COMPANY
OSR OSRAM LICHT AG
CMCSA COMCAST CORPORATION CLASS A
ALLE ALLEGION PLC
BLMN BLOOMIN' BRANDS INC.
LII LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC.
AMCX AMC NETWORKS INC. CLASS A
WWD WOODWARD INC.
WU WESTERN UNION COMPANY
VALE.N VALE S.A. ADS
V VISA INC. CLASS A
UPLD UPLAND SOFTWARE INC.
UHS UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES INC. CLASS B
TWOU 2U INC.
STAA STAAR SURGICAL CO.
SMFG SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP INC. (ADS)
POST POST HOLDINGS INC.
PKXN POSCO
OMC OMNICOM GROUP INC
NWL NEWELL BRANDS INC
NTGR NETGEAR INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
MNST MONSTER BEVERAGE CORPORATION
MEI METHODE ELECTRONICS INC.
LOCO EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS INC
HVT HAVERTY FURNITURE COS. INC.
GLW CORNING INC
GKOS GLAUKOS CORP
FISV FISERV INC.
EEFT EURONET WORLDWIDE INC.
CVLT COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC.
CRY CRYOLIFE INC.
CORT CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED.
CHGG CHEGG INC.
B BARNES GROUP INC.
AVT AVNET INC.
ATI ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED
ALSN ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS INC.
AEO AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC.
CYH COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC.
KALU KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION
MGI MONEYGRAM INTERNATIONAL INC.
SCS STEELCASE INC. CLASS A
TTC TORO COMPANY
VSH VISHAY INTERTECHNOLOGY INC.
TPB TURNING POINT BRANDS
SNAP SNAP INC. CLASS A
ICHR ICHOR HOLDINGS LTD.
AZUL AZUL S.A. SPONSORED ADR PFD
ENR ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC.
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
EHC ENCOMPASS HEALTH CORPORATION
PINS PINTEREST INC. CLASS A
GRWG GROWGENERATION
FROG JFROG
BIGC BIGCOMMERCE HOLDINGS
XPER XPERI HOLDING CORPORATION
BTRS BTRS HOLDINGS INC (A)
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
LOGI LOGITECH INTERNATIONAL S.A.
HEI HEICO CORPORATION
VMW VMWARE INC. CLASS A
GPN GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC.
WOR WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES INC.
TKR TIMKEN COMPANY
REGI RENEWABLE ENERGY GROUP INC.
PII POLARIS INC.
NLSN NIELSEN HOLDINGS PLC
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
LEA LEAR CORPORATION
KHC KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY
KAMN KAMAN CORPORATION CLASS A
IIVI II-VI INCORPORATED
FISV FISERV INC.
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
CRS CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION
APD AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS INC.
ALV ALLIANZ SE
WEED CANOPY GROWTH CORPORATION
ELY CALLAWAY GOLF COMPANY
MBUU MALIBU BOATS INC. CLASS A
MSM MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO. INC. CLASS A
NX QUANEX BUILDING PRODUCTS CORPORATION
SAM BOSTON BEER COMPANY INC. CLASS A
CENTA CENTRAL GARDEN & PET CO A
SJM J.M. SMUCKER COMPANY
VFC V.F. CORPORATION
MX MAGNACHIP SEMICONDUCTOR CORP.
SNBR SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
RTP.. RIO TINTO PLC ADS (MEXICO)
DLX DELUXE CORPORATION
DD DUPONT DE NEMOURS INC.
LEV THE LION ELECTRIC CO.
SBTX SILVERBACK THERAPEUTICS
ENS E SPLIT CORP.
ADV ASI INTERMEDIATE CORP.
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